My name is not important, but you can call me VH. I've made decent profits on the horses over the last few years and am mainly interested in punishing the bookies when they put up stupid odds. I hope I can help you out.
Monday 15 June 2009
Re-Launch for Royal Ascot
Right, I really have to pull my finger out.... This will have some sort of bollocks on it at least 3 times a week..... I promise....
We will start with an analysis of the first day of Royal Ascot as it has been requested by one loyal follower....
2.3o Queen Anne Stakes - 1 mile
Does Paco Boy (7/2) stay a mile? I don't think he does, this should prove it one way or the other. Gladitorus (5/2f) should reproduce his Dubai wins here and if he does will be the one to beat. Main Aim (9/2) tries a mile for the first time. A really decent horse over 7f, but I just don't know if he'll stay so I'm staying away. Alexandros (8/1) put Paco Boy and Aqlaam (10/1) to the sword last time out, but that was on softer. Mac Love (50/1) won well last time out and a good 4th (50/1) the time before that. If they go too quick, then he could be staying on past beaten horses for a place.
Selection - Gladitorus 5/2f (Ladbrokes, Coral, Stan James, vcbet)
3.05 King Stand Stakes - 5f
The talking horse here is Amour Propre (7/2), well I heard nothing else from the Racing Press in the last 2 weeks. Yup, the way he won the Palace House stakes was very impressive and he should be on everyone's shortlist. Scenic Blast (3/1f) is the Australian jolly. The Aussies have a great record in this race and he has to be seriously considered. Borderlescott (10/1) is a punter's favourite, not that he wins very much. A perennial bridesmaid in so many races, so place possiblities at best. The last 2 I'm considering are Fleeting Spirit (9/2) and Tax Free (11/1). Fleeting Spirit has been away for 8 months, but can go well fresh and If he's up to his form can threathen the status quo. Tax Free is an e/w shot . Personally I can't see him winning but could make the frame.
Selection - Can't split them, so 1/2 pt on Amour Propre 7/2 and Scenic Blast 3/1f.
3.45 St James Palace Stakes - 1m for 3yo
Mastercraftsman (9/10f) is the best horse here judging by his destruction of the field in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. that was on soft ground but has won on good-firm. Delegator (9/2) gets his ground to turn the tables, but really has it all to do. Soul City (22/1) followed the favourite home in 3rd and is value. Evasive (5/1) needs to find something to reverse form here but isn't without hope if he strips fitter for his 2,000 Guineas 6th.
Selection - Mastercraftsman 9/10f (vcbet) and Soul City 22/1 (vcbet).
4.20 Coventry Stakes - 6f for 2yo
Trends-wise this is pretty straight-forward. The winner will come from either, Canford Cliffs (2/1f), No Hubris (11/2) or Red Jazz (8/1). FACT.
Selection - none or all 3.
4.55 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) - 2m4f
Last Year's winner, Missoula (20/1) runs again and is 2lbs lower this year but doesn't seem to be in anywhere near to winning this at the moment. Kayf Aramis (7/1f) hosed up 2 runs ago, but disappointed LTO at Goodwood, but that probably came too soon. A solid favourite. Sesenta (9/1) hasn't put a foot wrong in last 2 starts and has the profile to take this. Probably not a great race from a punters prospective. There are few no-hopers in this (100/1 shot Valentino Rossi being an exception). Even Gala Evening (25/1) has a realistic chance in this, and if the rain was to come I'd consider Fire And Rain (28/1).
Selection - Gala Evening (25/1) at a push.
5.30 Windsor Castle Stakes - 5f for 2yo
Not really the kind of race to get you out of trouble. 100/1 shot Flashman's Papers won it last year for John Best. George Baker rides George Baker (33/1) for George Baker and it ran an ok 3rd at 33/1 last time. Mick Channon has a good record and saddles Di Stefano (33/1). Mister Mannanan (4/1f) has the profile of a winner and Angel's Pursuit (5/1) has won well on his only start so far. But I'm going to have to find a big priced horse for you. Fratellino (40/1) has some decent form in the book, but looks too exposed to win this. Star Rover (12/1) is a possibility but I can't help think he isn't classy enough to win. Dancing Freddie (50/1, stan james) also needs to come on again. Little Scotland (16/1, Ladbrokes, vcbet) has a good draw and is racing here instead of the fillies race.
Selection - Nothing much. Star Rover 12/1 and Little Scotland 16/1 against the field if I have to stick my neck out.
totesport and bet365 are offering 4 places @ 1/4 odds. Boylesports and skybet only offer 3 places @ 1/5 odds.
The rest of the days racing should be reviewed later.
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