Monday 15 June 2009

Re-Launch for Royal Ascot



Right, I really have to pull my finger out.... This will have some sort of bollocks on it at least 3 times a week..... I promise....

We will start with an analysis of the first day of Royal Ascot as it has been requested by one loyal follower....

2.3o Queen Anne Stakes - 1 mile
Does Paco Boy (7/2) stay a mile? I don't think he does, this should prove it one way or the other. Gladitorus (5/2f) should reproduce his Dubai wins here and if he does will be the one to beat. Main Aim (9/2) tries a mile for the first time. A really decent horse over 7f, but I just don't know if he'll stay so I'm staying away. Alexandros (8/1) put Paco Boy and Aqlaam (10/1) to the sword last time out, but that was on softer. Mac Love (50/1) won well last time out and a good 4th (50/1) the time before that. If they go too quick, then he could be staying on past beaten horses for a place.
Selection - Gladitorus 5/2f (Ladbrokes, Coral, Stan James, vcbet)

3.05 King Stand Stakes - 5f
The talking horse here is Amour Propre (7/2), well I heard nothing else from the Racing Press in the last 2 weeks. Yup, the way he won the Palace House stakes was very impressive and he should be on everyone's shortlist. Scenic Blast (3/1f) is the Australian jolly. The Aussies have a great record in this race and he has to be seriously considered. Borderlescott (10/1) is a punter's favourite, not that he wins very much. A perennial bridesmaid in so many races, so place possiblities at best. The last 2 I'm considering are Fleeting Spirit (9/2) and Tax Free (11/1). Fleeting Spirit has been away for 8 months, but can go well fresh and If he's up to his form can threathen the status quo. Tax Free is an e/w shot . Personally I can't see him winning but could make the frame.
Selection - Can't split them, so 1/2 pt on Amour Propre 7/2 and Scenic Blast 3/1f.

3.45 St James Palace Stakes - 1m for 3yo
Mastercraftsman (9/10f) is the best horse here judging by his destruction of the field in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. that was on soft ground but has won on good-firm. Delegator (9/2) gets his ground to turn the tables, but really has it all to do. Soul City (22/1) followed the favourite home in 3rd and is value. Evasive (5/1) needs to find something to reverse form here but isn't without hope if he strips fitter for his 2,000 Guineas 6th.
Selection - Mastercraftsman 9/10f (vcbet) and Soul City 22/1 (vcbet).

4.20 Coventry Stakes - 6f for 2yo
Trends-wise this is pretty straight-forward. The winner will come from either, Canford Cliffs (2/1f), No Hubris (11/2) or Red Jazz (8/1). FACT.
Selection - none or all 3.

4.55 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) - 2m4f
Last Year's winner, Missoula (20/1) runs again and is 2lbs lower this year but doesn't seem to be in anywhere near to winning this at the moment. Kayf Aramis (7/1f) hosed up 2 runs ago, but disappointed LTO at Goodwood, but that probably came too soon. A solid favourite. Sesenta (9/1) hasn't put a foot wrong in last 2 starts and has the profile to take this. Probably not a great race from a punters prospective. There are few no-hopers in this (100/1 shot Valentino Rossi being an exception). Even Gala Evening (25/1) has a realistic chance in this, and if the rain was to come I'd consider Fire And Rain (28/1).
Selection - Gala Evening (25/1) at a push.

5.30 Windsor Castle Stakes - 5f for 2yo
Not really the kind of race to get you out of trouble. 100/1 shot Flashman's Papers won it last year for John Best. George Baker rides George Baker (33/1) for George Baker and it ran an ok 3rd at 33/1 last time. Mick Channon has a good record and saddles Di Stefano (33/1). Mister Mannanan (4/1f) has the profile of a winner and Angel's Pursuit (5/1) has won well on his only start so far. But I'm going to have to find a big priced horse for you. Fratellino (40/1) has some decent form in the book, but looks too exposed to win this. Star Rover (12/1) is a possibility but I can't help think he isn't classy enough to win. Dancing Freddie (50/1, stan james) also needs to come on again. Little Scotland (16/1, Ladbrokes, vcbet) has a good draw and is racing here instead of the fillies race.
Selection - Nothing much. Star Rover 12/1 and Little Scotland 16/1 against the field if I have to stick my neck out.

totesport and bet365 are offering 4 places @ 1/4 odds. Boylesports and skybet only offer 3 places @ 1/5 odds.

The rest of the days racing should be reviewed later.

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