With just Aintree to come, the end of the season is nearly upon us, and then the boring Flat season starts. Having had a pretty poor week since saturday (thursdays ran poorly and I won't blame the ground this time), I'm thinking of keeping my powder dry until then. And when Aintree is out of the way, staying away some more. The old adage about the stock market was "Sell in May and go away, come back in September", well I won't go to those extremes, but May is usually a proper shit month with dodgy summer jumps horses out and the start of the flat season with horses you have no idea are fit or not. It may be a month for laying short-priced favourites, especially 2-3yos, but we'll see.
3.10 Lincoln Handicap
This is the Blue Riband event and heralds the start of the new yawn.. sorry... dawn. Its a 1m handicap over Doncaster's straight mile. The 2.00 Spring Mile, for horses who couldn't get into this race, could have a huge bearing over the draw bias, so watch this race for clues.
The race was ran at Redcar (2006) and Newcastle (2007) while Doncaster was being redeveloped.
The 10 year trends are fairly strong clues to the winner.
Aged 4-6 (10/10)
Actually, being 4-5 yo is stronger as they have won 8/10, but we'll keep 6yo in for now.
Out: Advanced (7) and Collateral Damage (7).
Carrying 9st or less (9/10)
Weight is deinitely an issue with only 1 winner lumping more than 9st. Extraterrestrial's jockey carries a 7lb claim, so he is ok.
Out: Mia's Boy, Penitent (fav), Dubai's Touch, Vitznau, Smokey Oakey
A win over 1 mile (9/10)
Obviously if you haven't won over a mile, its gonna be hard to win this over a mile. The only hope you may have is if you are an unexposed horse upping trip. However we will remove those because we are nasty buggers. I will leave in those who have won at more than 1m but not 1m.
Out: Harrison George, Ishetoo, Prime Exhibit.
Albaqaa has won over 9f and 10f and Full Toss has wins between 9-11f.
Rule out exposed horses (8/10)
You want up and coming horses not those in the grip of the handicapper. Horses with 15 or fewer runs have won 8/10 renewals.
Out: Albaqaa (22), Lang Shining (18) Full Toss (23), Huzzah (24), Kaolak (19), Mister Hardy (33)
Horse with ticks in all the boxes
4/4 Mull Of Killough (11/1), Tiger Reigns (12/1), Viva Vettori (18/1) and Reve De Nuit (80/1)
Also
3/4 Extraterrestrial, Lang Shining, Huzzah, Kaolak, Mister Hardy, Prime Exhibit
The ground is soft, and of the 10 horses above,
Mull Of Killough (0) Never run on worse than Good ground.
Reve De Nuit (0) All 4 runs have been on the All Weather
Lang Shining (1/1) Won a 17 runner affair at Newbury in 2008. His only run on soft.
Tiger Reigns (2/2) Won both runs on soft however Michael Dods thinks this has come 2 weeks too soon.
Huzzah (0/3)
Kaolak (0/1)
Mister Hardy (1/4)
Viva Vettori (0/1) Great AW form, but unproven on soft. Only run was 3rd on debut @ 40/1
Prime Exhibit (0/2)
If you want to ignore the trends, Collateral Damage (16/1) has 5 wins and 3 places from 10 runs on soft.
If I'm going to go for one, it's going to be Viva Vettori, however I'd like to know what happens at 2pm and I'll be in the pub by then.
Dodgy tips up next..
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