Cheltenham Day Four

Cheltenham Day Four

The final day and an ok day yeterday, Alberta's Run winning @ 14/1 (was 20/1) and a placed horse in every race.

Managesd to have a computer crash this morning so am well behind. Am just going to put up the best trends horses and my selections.

1.30  JCB Triumph Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Last run between 19-55 days

10-10 Between 2-6 run

  9/10 Won LTO

  9/10 Won at least half of hurdle runs

  9/10 By a Group 1 flat winning sire

  8/10 RPR of at least 123

6/6 Advisor, (13/2) Alavain (9/2), Carlito Brigante (4/1f)

5/6 Olofi (12/1) , Pitoni (16/1), Soldatino (11/2), Blue Nymph (66/1)

Pricewise has tipped Olofi (20/1 into 12/1) I still want to be with him but he offers no value. Think he will steam into about 9/1. A case can easily be made for all three of the trend horses and I think they will all be up there. I'm going to back a huge priced horse to break them up. Its Barizan (28/1). He's got good form at this level, at Cheltenham and is good on all ground.

Selections:

E/W: Barizan @ 28/1 (general)

2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Trends:

9/10 4-16 Hurdle runs

9/10 OR of 128-144

9/10 Carrying less than 11-02

9-10 Ran less than 36 days ago

9/10 Not run at a previous festival

9/10 SP shorter than 20/1

Also: 17/30 placed horses were 25/1 or bigger

Unfortunatly these trends took too much time to do, so I've skipped them. You should avoid the top 4 on the racecard as they are carrying too much weight. The Racing Post say that Bellvano (10/1), Tawaagg (12/1), Eradicate (12/1), Tito Bustillo and Inventor (25/1) have strong trends, with Tito Bustillo (9/1fav) their call.

I've followed Oldrik for the last 2 runs where he was 5th (placed with bet365) and 2nd. He doesn't win too much now and is 11/1 so not an e/w price for me. Very competative market, 7 horses 12/1 or shorter, big e/w selections aplenty. Marodima (50/1) carries too much weight but really shouldn't be the price he is. I'd hope for a place, but can't guarantee a good run. Pasha Bere (50/1) carries no weight and is ultra-consistent, is another big price and Keki Buku (40/1) is a much better horse than this price, but has disappointed at Cheltenham in his 3 runs. Basically there may well be a big priced winner here but bets should be at the minimum.

Selections:

Win:  Oldrik @ 11/1 (bet365) [e/w if 12/1+]

E/W:  Keki Buku @ 40/1

E/W: Pasha Bere  @ 50/1

Poss E/W: Marodima @ 50/1 (general)

2.40  Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

(registered as The Spa Novices' Hurdle)

Trends:

5/5 RPR of 139 or more

5/5 2m5f+ win

5/5 At least 3 run over hurdles

5/5 Was in the top 2 LTO in a Graded Hurdle

4/5 Aged 6-7

Only 5 runnings of this, so trents not too strong, but a few have 5/5

Enterprise Park (9/1), Restless Harry (17/2), Shinrock Paddy (9/1), Tell Massini (9/2fav), Wayward Prince (66/1), Premier Victory (28/1)

A good race here, I've fancied Restless Harry for this for ages but Tell Massini and Fionnegas are big dangers. Cappa Bleu won the Foxhunter's last year, but hasn't shown the same form this year. One horse I'm amazed is as big as 50/1 is Berties Dream. I think he's done nothing much wrong to deserve such a big price, you never know. Another in decent form is Silver Kate who definitely gets the trip. Quel Esprit fell on wednesday and is obviously fine after that, but I though his real chance was then and not now.

Selections:

Win: Restless Harry @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, VCbet)

E/W: Silver Kate @ 20/1 (general)

E/W: Berties Dream @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, VCbet)

3.20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

Sod the trends, if you are interested, Kauto Star, Denman, Cooldine and Tricky Trickster are the best.

Kauto Star should win, I did think that Carruthers (66/1) is a big price but you're only aiming at 1 place at best, and he should be swamped by others coming round the bend. However he's 12/1 to win in the w/o big 2 market, and 33/1 w/o Kauto Star. This is a better e/w sleection

WIn: Kauto Star @ 8/11f

E/W w/o Big 2: Carruthers @ 14/1 (Sportingbet)

E/W w/o Kauto Star; Carruthers @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00  Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

Trends:

10/10 Won at 3m or more

  9/10 RPR of 128 or more

  9/10 Last run within 12-33 days

  8/10 Aged 10 or less

5/5 Southwestern (33/1), Turthen (16/1) and Chestnut Annie (28/1)

4/5 Amicelli (33/1), Roulez Cool (4/1fav)

Roulez Cool (4/1fav) is probably a worth favourite, he's to short to back but should be in your placepots. I really fancy Chestnut Annie (28/1) in this, she could spring a surprise at a huge price. Robber's Glen (25/1), Turthen (16/1) and Trust Fund (8/1) are others to consider

Selections:

E/W: Chestnut Annie @ 28/1 (bet365)

E/W: Robber's Glenn @ 25/1 (Bluesq, Sportingbet)

E/W: Turthen @ 16/1 (general)

4.40  Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle

The first race was last year, so no trends. I saw Clova Island  win at Kempton last month and am happy that he can carry that form into this race. Fairyland is Pricewised today and is a shame as he was backable at that price, now I'm not so sure. Not value, but still an each way price. Balthazar King has decent statsin all the right areas. How dodgepot Ashkazar is favourite is beyond me, gone backwards in the last 2 seasons.

Selections: (back them all with bet365, giving 5 places, best prices and guaranteed prices)

E/W: Clove Island @ 16/1

E/W: Fairyland @ 16/1

E/W: Balthazar King @ 20/1

5.15  Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup Handicap

Trends:

9/10 OR between 130-143

9/10 Maximum of 12 chase runs

9/10 Carrying less than 10-12

9/10 No older than 9

8/10 No more than 4 runs since August

Also the winner is usually less than 9/1 SP, but as we have 10/1 co-favourites at the moment, that is up in the air, might be worth looking for horses than are being backed.

5/5 You're The Top (8/1fav), Fighting Chance (12/1), Safari Journey (16/1)

4/5 Nomechecki (25/1), Pepsyrock (20/1), Tramantano (66/1), Beggar's Cap (16/1), Nikola (40/1)

Need to pick a lower weight. Hard to see Free World winning as he can't even win in small fields, unless he needs lots of horses around him. You're The Top looks a wortyh favourite. I really can't find a decent bet here, and am happy to pass over the get out stakes.

Selections:

No bet (officially)

That's it, the end of a great meeting for me, and the bookies but not for those favourite backers and Racing Post readers..... good, remember the only way to beat the bookies is to back when the odds are in your favour.

all the best

VH