Cheltenham Day Three
Big Buck's above,he may lose. Dunguib and Master Minded were previous incumbents of the poisoned chalice. Personally I don't think he can, whereas the others were too short.
Not a great day for the blog yesterday. 1 winner. I had a good day as I was backing lots of other stuff. I try to only put the best bets up here rather than back the 3-4 horses e/w that I actually do. This isn't working. Cue Card won for me yesterday, a 4yo busted the bumper trend and it was not Irish either. I had the exacta up with Al Ferof, paid almost double the CSF @ £619.50 (compared to £334). I always find the CSF only pays better if the favourite is in the frame (esp the the winner) but the exacta pays hugely if outsiders are involved. Anyway onwards and upwards.
1.30 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase
Trends:
Only 5 runnings here so trends are there to be broken.
5/5 OR of 123-135 (4 were 133-135)
5/5 Carrying less than 10-13
5/5 Top 2 LTO
5/5 Top 4 in all completed jump starts
5/5 Only 1 win over jumps (!!)
4/5 Won over 2m4f or further
This is a problem race, firstly the field is skewed so that only 2 horses are rated at 135 or less and both of these are carrying less than 10-13. So basically this looks pretty competative and its almost worth ignoring.
Kings Forest (20/1) (bottom weight) has all 6, but we need to delve a bit further.
Tanks For That (25/1) (2nd botom weight) has 5/6.
Nicanor and The Midnight Club has 4/6 and this is more like it. but both aren't market leaders. Copper Bleu would have 4 if you want to count his PTP win at 2m4f+. The rest are 2s and 3s. Rivaliste (7/1fav) has only 2 which is probably not good.
Of the maret principles, Hey Big Spender (10/1) could be the one to follow here. Although pretty high in the weights, he had good Cheltenham form and has won twice at this distance. A longer price could be The Midnight Club (22/1) who could fight it out for a place in this competative event. One leftfield selection that I'll probably will back is Door Boy @ 33/1 who could run a big race.
Win: Hey Big Spender @ 10/1 (general)
E/W: The Midnight Club @ 22/1 (Stan James), Door Boy @ 33/1 (Stan James)
2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
Trends:
10/10 Aged 6 to 9
9/10 Class 3 win or higher
9/10 Last raced between 20-42 days.
9/10 Carrying less than 11-03
8/10 A win at 2m4f-2m6f
8/10 Between 6-15 hurdle runs
Looking to avoid those top weights, distance wins at a good class is imperative as is hurdling experience. Not worried about the Days Since Raced as that could be more luck than judgement.
5/6 South O' The Border (40/1), Chamirey (33/1), Cross Kennon (25/1), Silk Affair (33/1), Special Occasion (100/1)
Also Alfie Sherrin (7/2fav) and Fredo (20/1) (both won at 2m7f) and Palypso De Creek (33/1) (decent win in France) can also be included. However Alfie Sherrin looks too inexperienced for this and Fredo is exposed.
As you can see from the prices, the trends analysis point to a big priced winner.
Looking for a big price here, plumping for Palypso De Creek. I'll also be hving a closer look at Don't Push It who's price it too also big for this. He had a touch of class about him when he feels like it. Chamirey is unproven on the ground and might be worth looking at for market moves.
E/W Palypso De Creek @ 33/1 (Lad, Bet365, VCbet, Spodds); Don't Push It @ 28/1 (Lad, Bet365, VCbet, Spodds) ; Chamirey @ 33/1 (Lad, VCbet, Bet365)
2.40 Ryanair Chase
(Registered as the Festival Trophy Chase)
Trends:
Another new race with only 5 years of trends. They are very very strong though and I expect the winner to be one of them.
5/5 RPR of 158+. Every horse passes this one
5/5 OR of 152+ . Again, every horse passes.
5/5 Has won at Cheltenham
5/5 Won or placed in a PaddyPower Gold Cup (in Nov) or a Boylesports Gold Cup (in Dec)
5/5 From the top 3 in the betting
5/5 4 or fewer runs since October. All pass this stat.
The only horses in the field that have placed in either of the Gold Cups are also the top 3 in the betting, Poquelin 7/2fav, Tranquil Sea (9/2) and Barbers Shop (6/1). Barbers Shop hasn't won at Cheltenham, so that leaves the other two.
Win: Poquelin @ 3/1 (general); Barber's Shop @ 6/1 (general)
As an afterthought, I'm backing Alberta's Run @ 16/1
3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Trends:
10/10 Top 2 LTO
10/10 No more than 4 runs since August
9/10 Aged 6-8
9/10 In the Top 2 in all hurdles this season
9/10 8-20 hurdle runs
9/10 Won a Graded hurdle
8/10 Pre-race RPR of 164+
7/7 Big Buck's 8/11fav
6/7 Tidal Bay (15/2), Karabak (9/1)
Not difficult that the top3 in the betting are strongest in the trends
E/W: Time For Rupert @ 20/1 is the value, but I'd probably watch it.
4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase
Trends:
10/10 Won a Class 3 or better
9/10 Won over 2m3f-2m5f
9/10 Raced within 41 days
9/10 Was Top 5 LTO
9/10 Raced over fences between 4-15 times
8/10 Carrying 11st or less
8/10 Aged younger than 10
8/10 Raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival
Horse with all 8 trends are
8/8 Sunnyhill Boy (10/1) and My Petra (20/1)
7/7 Song Of Songs (9/1), Made In Taipan (33/1), Martys Mission (33/1), Great Endeavour (25/1), Victorias Groom (50/1)
Song Of Songs hasn't won at the required distance which is a huge worry. Made In Taipan is carrying too much weight and Martys Misson hasn't got festival experience.
I need value in this and I'm not having any win bets. Short and sweet, but I'm going for my perennial favourite Private Be.... Hew doesn't win much but he's in the form of his life and is too big a price. Other horses of interest are Victorias Groom and From Dawn To Dusk. Purely form a trends perspective My Petra could do the business, but I have doubts.
E;:W Private Be @ 25/1 (general), Victorias Groom @ 33/1 (general), From Dawn To Dusk @ 25/1 (general)
4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)
Trends:
10/10 Rated within 8lbs of the RPR Top-rated
10/10 Aged 7-10
9/10 3m+ run LTO
9/10 A Handicap Chase win
8/10 OR less than 129
8/10 Carrying 11-00 or less
8/10 Top 3 in either of the last 2 races
8/10 3m+ win
The OR and weight stat, rules out all bar Ma Yahab (fails the wieght) and Burren Legend. So we can basically ignore that stat for this renewal.
6/8 Shillingstone (8/1), Ballabriggs (7/1fav) and Ma Yahab (25/1),
5/8 Nostringsattached (12/1), Khachaturian (16/1), Boychuk (20/1), I'moncloudnine (16/1)
You really still want a horse with a lower weight, which should count out Ballabriggs, however I'm not going to make that decision here. I really like Gallent Nuit as my idea of the winner. The ground should be ok with a bit of rain over night. Of the longer priced ones, Ma Yahab (low weight) is interesting and good value. I'moncloudnine has something about him but hasn't race in this Class before.
Win: Gallent Nuit @ 9/1 (Lad, Coral, VCbet, Bet365)
E/W Ma Yahab @ 25/1 (general); I'moncloudnine @ 20/1 (sportingbet, 16/1 bet365 5places)
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