Cheltenham Day Two

Cheltenham Day Two

Well, I'm more than happy with my first day at Cheltenham, a bigwinner in the first set me up for the day and later on the week. A morning punt on A New Story @ 33/1 came good. Pricewise managed a great day and followers of the 2nd best Value Hunter are quids in. Right, after a day on the lash, I'm writing this with a clear head (thank you egg and bacon sandwich and sugary cuppa). Thankfull the first 2 days were already on the laptop. The next two aren't so a bit of graft tonight and the next 2 days will be in order.

1.30   140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)

A great start to the card, and plenty of chances here. Of the favourites, none are particularly opposable, I don't think Mobaasher or Pettifour are going to last the distance but they both are good horses on good ground whereas other aren't proven on it.

The others all have their reasons to be backed. I'd rather be with Massasoit (10/1), but there must be some value floating around.

Youngstown fits the trends nicely and I do expect a big run from him. He's certainly overpriced @ 50/1 (vcbet).

Trends:
9/10 3 or more runs over fences
9/10 Finished 1st or 2nd in a 3m+ chase
9/10 Top 4 finish LTO (exception unplaced in a C1 H'cap)
9/10 Aged 6-8
8/10 1st or 2nd on any of last 2 starts
7/10 Won a chase/hurdle over 3m+

Not a great trends race, but Synchronised (non-runner), Fabalu (16/1), Massasoit (10/1), Mobaasher (10/1), Poker De Sivola (18/1) and Youngstown (50/1) are all 6/6. Those with 5/6 are Abbeybraney (9/1), Pettifour (12/1), Presenting Forever (16/1), Pennek (33/1), Cast Cada (40/1), Gentle Ranger (40/1) and Noarad De Verzee (40/1).

Selections:
Win: Massasoit @ 10/1
E/W: Youngstown @ 50/1 (vcbet)


2.05   Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (registered as The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 5 or 6
  9/10 Pre-race RPR of 142+
  9/10 Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed starts over hurdles
  9/10 Won at least half of all hurdle runs
  9/10 Had won over 2m4+
  8/10 Rated within 11lbs of the RPR top-rated

Good trends race and the three that stand out are:
6/6 Quel Esprit (7/2 fav), Rite Of Passage (4/1), Peddlers Cross (6/1)
5/6 Ghizao (20/1), Summit Meeting (12/1)

Looks to be one of the market leaders, very little form on good ground to go on, I think Quel Esprit is a good think but is far too short. I don't think Rite Of Passage has done anything exceptional and will be against him today. Peddlers Cross's wins are all on softer ground and he'd be an unknown quantity on the good ground. Reve De Sivola is one I'd want to be on the side of, 11/1 is fair enough, but I think I want it each way. Finian's Rainbow is too short at 6/1, but has a chance. The e/w selection could come in the shape of The Knoxs (33/1), plenty of scope for improvement and he's 2 wins have come on Soft and Good-Firm.

Selections:
Win: Peddler's Cross @ 7/1 (VCbet, Bet365, William HIll)
E/W: The Knoxs @ 33/1, Reve De Sivola (if 12/1 or bigger)

2.40 RSA Chase

Trends:
10/10 Didn't race on the flat
10/10 1st or 2nd LTO
10/10 Last run 24-53 days ago
10/10 RPR of 141+
10/10 At least 3 runs over fences
  9/10 Rated within 14lbs of the RPR Top-rated
  9/10 Between 9 and 12 chase/hurdle runs

Most of the are pretty good with the trends, so it will be tough just using the trends..
5/6  Burton Port, (12/1) Diamond Harry (13/2), Little Josh (66/1), Punchestowns (5/2jfav), Weapon's Amnesty  (9/1), Long Run (5/2jfav)

Should be between Long Run and Punchestowns. However I'm backing Diamond Harry as he seems to be the forgotton horse and is 13/2.

Selections:
Win: Diamond Harry @ 13/2 (generl) and if Long Run goes 3/1 I'll probably back him too.

3.20  Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase

Trends:
10/10 Won over 2m 1f 110y+
  9/10 At least 8 chase runs
  9/10 Rated within 10lbs of the RPR Top-rated
  9/10 Course winner
  9/10 No Older than 9yo
  8/10 Pre-race RPR of 167+
  8/10 Won Graded Chase LTO

6/7 Master Minded (10/11fav)
5/7 Big Zeb (11/1), Golden Silver (66/1), Twist Magic (15/2)

I'm going against Master Minded with Kalahari King as he's a super horse on the good ground, and this will be a tough race for MM. Twist Magic doesn't like Cheltenham and must be ignored.

Selections:
Win: Kalahari King @ 9/2 (general)


4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

Trends:
10/10 Won over hurdles between 2m2f and 2m6f
  9/10 Top 6 finish LTO
  9/10 Won in Class 3 or better
  8/10 Carried no more than 11st
  8/10 Aged 6/7
  8/10 No more than 16 runs over hurdles
  8/10 No run for at least 39 days
  8/10 Won a race that season

8/8 Gold Award (33/1)
7/8 Hampshire Express (20/1), Sir Harry Ormesher (14/1), Lake Legend (20/1)


Gold Award is Pricewised I think, it's still 33/1 and is good value. I wanted to back Deutschland each-way, but he's been backed all week and isn't huge value but must go close. I was against Quantitativeeasing when he was beaten last time and I'm against him today.

Selections:
Win: Deutschland @ 9/1 (Bet365, betfred, vcbet, William Hill)
E/W: Gold Award @ 33/1 (Lad, WH, VC, Bet365);

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle

Trends:
Only 5 runnings of this, and a couple of them are a bit shaky as well
5/5 OR of 124-133
5/5 Didn't win their first 2 hurdle starts (?!?!)
5/5 By a Sire who won a Group 1 on the flat
5/5 RPR of 112+ (that every horse by miles)
5/5 Won LTO, exception beaten in Grade 2 hurdle

5/5 Fin Vin De Leu (28/1), Bothy (14/1), Sanctuaire (13/2jfav), Ned Of The Hill (40/1), Hunterview (17/2)

Nasty handicap. Small Stakes Advised. No write up as I'm running late.

Selections:
E/W: Bocamix @ 50/1 (bet365 and 5 places too)
E/W: Fin Vin De LEu @ 28/1 (bet365)

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race)

Trends:
10/10 Won a Bumper with 14 or more runners
10/10 Aged 5 or 6
  9/10 Irish-bred
  8/10 Pre-race RPR of 121+
  8/10 Won a Bumper worth £4,000+

Just 4 with all 5 stats.
5/5 Bubbly Bruce (66/1), Dare Me (25/1), Shannon Spirit (25/1), Tavern Times (10/1).
Al Ferof (10/1) and Carpincho (66/1) are the only otheres to have the 10/10 stat regarding a win in a big field. Al Ferof isn't Irish-bred, and Carpincho looks outclassed.

Selections:
Win: Al Ferof @ 10/1 (general)
E/W: Dare Me @ 25/1 ( bet365, 4 places)

Thats it today, took a while, hoping to be a bit earlier tomorrow, well It'll have to be as I'm at work by noon.

Good Luck