Grand National Trends - Weight and Official Rating

"Weight stops trains" apparently, I don't necessarily agree.... however in the Grand National It is almost probably true. The best horses carry the most weight and are the classiest horses in the race, but they carry too much to win and having to lug between 12-22 lbs more than the horses at the bottom of the handicap over 4m4f is going to take its toll....

Red Rum won the race 3 times and was 2nd on the other 2 occasions. He's the ony horse since 1957 to carry more than 11st 5lbs and win the race. Only 1 horse (Hedgehunter, 11-01) has won carrying more than 11st since Corbiere (11-03) in 1983.

There is now more of a problem. Until recently the National didn't attract the quality of horses it does now, 100+ entries are the norm now. Previously there would be fewer entries and horses would get in at 10 stone and plenty would run from "out of the handicap" (ie rated to carry less than the minimum weight of 10 stone) (Bobbyjo, 1999 and Lord Gyllene, 1997 won this way). Now the bottom weight will carry about 10-07, 10-06 or so and the difference between top and bottom weights is around 5-6lbs closer. We now have to raise the weights that the winner could possibly carry by the same 5-6lbs. Thankfully this ties in well with the Official Rating this year.

The winners of the Grand National have all been within the OR of 135-153 since 1989 (bar 1). Now that is a fairly huge range but it rules out the good and crap horses. Royal Athlete won off 155, that was pretty amazing as he only carried 10-06, so he was rated 18lbs less than the top weight, Master Oats (OR 173). This years race has Madison Du Berlais (11-10, OR 158) and Notre Pere (11-10, OR 158) and 4 other horses carrying more than 11-05 and happily their OR is also 154+. Almost perfect. The 'crap' horses won't get in but we still need to get rid of them.

Out
Carrying more than 11-05 (OR of 154+) (6 horses)
Madison Du Berlais, Notre Pere, Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Joe Lively, Vic Venturi

Official Rating less than 135 (10 horses)
King's Advocate, Anothercoppercoast, Merigo, Chiaro, According To John, Lorum Leader, Over The Creek, Cossack Dancer, Wee Robbie, Offaly

If Madison Du Berlais and Notre Pere both don't run, Mon Mome will become the new top weight and carry 11-10, and every horse will move up 3lbs in weight and we may have to revisit this.

Ideally you should still be looking at horses carrying 11st or less in the race but we don't want to rule out a possibly winner

46 horses remain. Next I think we'll try to knock out horses who haven't won over 3 miles. After all if you haven't won at 3 miles or more, how can you win at 4m4f.