Cheltenham Day One

1.30Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 110y, Class 1 (Grade 1)


A match-up on paper between the superstar in the making, Dunguib and Get Me Out Of Here. If you were looking for me to unravel a 33/1 shot to take them on, then you will have to wait for another race. The only thing that could go against them is the ground. It is currently Good/Soft (Good in places), but drying out. Dunguib's only defeat was on better ground (in his only run). Get Me Out Of Here has won on his only try. If, and it's a big IF, something is going to beat them, then Menorah (12/1) is good enough can handle drying ground.

Trends:
10/10 Won on at least 50% of Hurdle starts
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 132
9/10 Raced within the last 45 days
9/10 Won last race
8/10 Rated within 8lbs of RPR Top Rated
7/10 Contested a Graded race

Also:
11/20 Were won by Irish-trained horses
The last winner with just 1 run was 1992

Only 2 horses have ticks in all the boxes, Dunguib (evsfav) and Get Me Out Of Here (5/1) and the market suggests it's a two-horse race too.

Selections
Win: Dunguib (evs, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Sportingbet)
Win (w/o Dunguib) Get Me Out Of Here (9/4, Stan James, Bet365, Sportingodds, Bluesq)
Each-Way: Menorah (12/1, totesport, Stan James, Sportingbet, VCbet)



2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
5yo+, 2m, Class 1 (Grade 1)

A good looking renewal of the Arkle, it's best sticking to the favourites in the market. The one nagging doubt I have with Captain Cee Bee, is his jumping. He fell in his penultimate start and the only reason he's favourite ahead of Sizing Europe was because “he would have beaten him”. I'm not so sure and Sizing Europe looks better value of the two. The Arkle usually goes to an up and coming youngster, but this year is different as we have plenty of older Champion Hurdle types trying their luck over the fences this season. A week ago, I was tempted to back Sports Line at a nice each-way price, but he's come in for tons of support since then and is only 8/1 and his best runs have been on softer. I really want to tip up Osana, but he hasn't done enough for me this season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run into a place though...... Argggh.... Sizing Europe, that's it done. No going back. But Sports Line is the weeks steamer..... oohhh

Selections:
Win: Sizing Europe (11/2, PaddyPower, Coral, SportingBet)
Win: Sports Line (if he drifts to 10/1+)

Trends:
10/10 SP not bigger than 11/1.
9/10 Aged 5-7
9/10 Finished in top 2 in all completed Chases (10/10 top 3)
9/10 Rated within 12lbs of the RPR Top-Rated
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 144
9/10 A Best RPR Hurdle rating of at least 143
8/10 3-5 runs over fences
8/10 Won a Novice Chase over 2m-2m1f

The Arkle is race for young Novice Chasers over 2 miles. This year we have a some very good older ex-hurdlers in here which may distort the age stat. However the horses that fit the most trends are: Captain Cee Bee (3/1fav), Sizing Europe (11/2), Riverside Theatre (8/1) all having 7/8. Those with 6/8 are Osana (16/1) and Somersby (4/1). Sports Line (8/1) won an Irish Chase (not Novice) and could also be included with (6/8).


2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
5yo+, 3m 1f, Class 1 (Grade 3)

A definite trends race. Therefore we can ignore everything but The Package. That's true, but I've already given you none of that value that I crave. This time yesterday, Ogee was 20/1. Someone's must have been reading by notes, as he's now 11/1 and would have been my bet. One horse that is nicely weighted for this and almost fits the trends is Nenuphar Collonges and I think he's a bit of value here. Last of all, New Alco: not run for 2 years, if it wins, I did mention it.

Selections:
Win: The Package @ 13/2,
Win: Ogee @ 11/1 (William Hill, PaddyPower, Sportingbet) or e/w @ 12/1+
E/W: Nenuphar Collonges @ 22/1 (Vcbet, Ladbrokes, Stan James)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 7-10
10/10 Carried less than 10-13
10/10 OR of 127-143.
9/10 Won over 3m or more
9/10 Finished in top 3 in last 2 starts
8/10 SP between 5/1 and 8/1
8/10 No more than 11 chases
8/10 Ran no more than 4 times in the season

The Package (13/2) hits all the right notes.
Those with 7/8 are Bensalem (11/2fav), Theatrical Moment (12/1), Ogee (11/1) and Chief Dan George (33/1).


3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 110y, Class 1

The handicaps are easy compared to these quality races. I could give you 5 and still miss the winner Khyber Kim. KK has done very little over the years and then bang, 2 big wins this season and he's still not favourite. Go Native, Solwhit, Zaynar and Medermit might have something to say about that and we haven't even mentioned the 1st/2nd/3rd from last year, it really wouldn't surprise me to see 6 jumping the last in a line...Right enough blathering, save that for the Morning Line/Racing Post. Lets find the winner. Solwhit's negatives are 1) being scoped twice in the last week. 2) Hasn't run at Cheltenham, 3) Likes soft ground. Lets get rid of all the rubbish. The main worry is the scoping as that's bound to put off any horse this close before a race. Facts are Solwhit has good form on the good ground and not having run at Cheltenham isn't a disadvantage until you know you can't run there. Khyber Kim is the one who's form on softer is exceptional and might find it all a bit quick.
{Stop waffling, Editor}

Go Native is now too short, I'm afraid. The market is all over the place, so make sure you get guaranteed prices with the bookies (most do online, and Paddys do in their shops). Bet365 are also matching the best price on every horse until sunday, as well as GP and their 4/1+ C$ offer, where they will match your stake on the next TV race if you have a 4/1+ winner). {Waffling, Ed}

I really don't want you to be put off anything in this so I'm actually going to say no bet, well no win selection. Hand on heart, I will probably have a bit on Solwhit @ 13/2+, but that may change tomorrow.

Selection:
no bet {What!! after all that, Ed}

Trends:
10/10 Ran within last 51 days
9/10 Aged 6-9
9/10 10-25 runs over hurdles
9/10 Won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 156
8/10 Previous festival winner
8/10 Top Speed figure of at least 152
8/10 Rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top-rated
8/10 Won LTO

Also
Only 1 winner (Hardy Eustace) had unplaced form in his season's figures.
Only 3 winners in the last 30 years hadn't run since the turn of the year.

Go Native (9/2fav) is the only horse that hits all 9 trends.
Those with 8/9 are , Solwhit (13/2), Khyber Kim (8/1) and Celestial Halo (9/1)
7/9 are Punjabi (15/2), Medermit (9/1), and Zaynar (10/1)



4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap Cross Country Chase
5yo+, 3m 7f, Class 2

The Irish benefit race, where Enda Bolger trains the first 3 home. Probably.... Let's not beat around the bush, Garde Champetre and L'ami should be battling it out at the end with Sizing Australia 3rd. Lets try and find the each way. Monkerhostin is interesting now that he's won again this year. The 16/1 is very tempting. A horse I backed last time was Tawnies (and got the forecast up). It's 66/1 here. That was over 2m2f which was too short for him. This is probably a bit too far, but keep a lookout for him in other races.

Selections:
Win: Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Sportingbet)
E/W: Monkerhostin @ 16/1 (Skybet, Ladbrokes)

Trends:
Only in existence for 5 years, however what can be gather from such a small sample is
5/5 Winners were trained in Ireland (4 by Enda Bolger)
5/5 Won at least 1 of their last 2 outings
5/5 Won a Cross Country race either at Cheltenham or Punchestown
5/5 Won over 3 miles or more
5/5 OR of 126-129 and no more than 10-13 or were Top-Weight

Garde Champetre (9/4fav) hits all 5 trends, not surprising as he's won the last 2 of these. Only 3 other horses have won a Cross Country Chase, L'Ami (7/2), Heads onthe Ground (33/1) and Another Jewel (20/1) (who is the only horse to hit 4/5 trends). Only 3 other horses have won in 1 of their last 2 runs as well, making this another likely win for Garde Champetre.


4.40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 4f, Class 1 (Grade 2)

This should be a shootout between the two market principles. They both have possible negatives, Quevega hasn't raced since she won this last year and Voler La Vedette, pulls quite hard in her races and might not enjoy Cheltenham, she's also the Pricewise horse, so you know there's no value in her now. There's value in Quevega @ 2/1 now she's drifted and that is the win bet.
There is definitely some e/w value in the race if you don't fancy these 2. Easter Legend has been cut from 33/1 to 18/1

Selections:
Win: Quevega @ 2/1 (general
E/W: Easter Legend @ 18/1 (bet365, Paddypower, William Hill); Aura About You @ 40/1 (bet365); Amber Brook @ 40/1 (Betfred, Sportingbet, Bluesq, Stan James)

Trends:
This race is only 2 years old. Both winners were 5yo if that is any help. Last year's winner Quevega (5/4fav) is this years hotpot, but hasn't had a run since that win. Voler La Vedette (5/2) is her main market rival, while the inaugural winner, Whiteoak has been retired to stud.