Saturday 2 August 2008

the rest of some depressing cards

With little on offer at Goodwood we need to find something elsewhere. First lets get the 2 Newmarket Scoop6 races out of the way.

2.55
Harold Bluetooth is Barry's Bismarck and I'm not so sure. 9/4 (bet365, sportingbet) looks a little big. If Gross Prophet (10/1) wins I may have to give it all up. I've backed this donkey more than I should have and he's disappointed on every occasion. A 2nd 2 runs ago broke his sequence of duck eggs but this dodgy geezer must be laid. I guess Non Sucre (28/1) just hasn't trained on from being a decent 2yo. Blinkers re-applied today and they may spark him again as they did last season. If you take Emperors Jade and Writingonthewall out of the equation you still have some decent chances. Nezami (16/1, bluesq, betfred) hasn't done much this season, but I won't rule him out for place chances. I'm wafling again so Harald to beat Kalahari Gold (9/2) with Non Sucre/Nezami and in a speculative tricast!!!

3.30
7 runners unfortunately, so Yarqus (12/1) misses out on a e/w bet. Redesignation (2/1f) is napped by Spotlight, which is good coz Trans Siberian (5/1, Coral) could just get left in front enough to win this.

Doncaster
3.25 Looks the type of race with some e/w value. Trouble is knowing what to suggest. Avoiding the outsider. We have 5 horses at e/w prices. Capricorn Run (25/1) has been written off by Spotlight. Likes All-Weather, needs further, bad draw, up 8lbs.... zzzzzzzz ...ok, he might not win, but he's dropping down the weights and could be worth watching in the coming weeks. (lets hope its not today). Ann Stokels' Pawan (16/1, sportingbet) is big considering he's been running well. Ann's riding gets tons of criticism, but can't be ruled out at spbet's ridiculous price. Somnus (16/1, vcbet) is also at a big price, but opens seasonal account here today and may need the run. Worth watching for a market move, but vcbet have made him value. Hammadi (20/1) found only Loch Jipp (100/1) behind him in June, but is better than that, and with Tajdeef (11/4f) also running poorly there this race is wide open. Don't worry as I've mentioned most of the field here, I won't claim bragging rights when Capricorn Run beats Pawan by a nose.

4.00
Checklow (8/11f) can be beaten :-). No run for 3 months and with the St Leger coming up need to get fit.

Hamilton
7.35 Border Tale (20/1, Skybet) is a dual purpose horse, who's been getting better over hurdles. Back in flat handicaps for the forst time in 15 months and could have snuck past the odds compilers. Runs off 50 today, 8lb less than last time and though he's not my best ever 20/1 shot, he's worth mentioning as overpriced. Astrodome (3/1) looks very beatable indeed.

8.35 Has always started a big price, but Forzarzi (16/1, Stan James/betdirect) won't have better chances to break his duck. This looks a pretty weak race and he offers a little e/w value with some backwards -looking horses here.

All in all, very little around today and it may be worth taking a day off to watch a very close Test match...

My All-sports statistician, Mr Edge, recommends Warrington to beat Leeds tonight. Leeds had a tough ask last week in their loss to St Helens and Warrington are in pretty decent form. The bookies make Leeds slight favs and they go 11/10 (StanJames, Ladbrokes) on the Wolves.

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