Friday 22 August 2008

It's York, Jim! But not as we know it

Typical England.... same old rubbish and they still cock up your bets. Only you in-running punters managed to lock in a profit on wednesday, with the rest of us trying to recork the champers at 9.52pm. Ho-hum....


And Imperial Skylight turns in one of the unluckier performances of the week. Twice squeezed when going for a gap and nudged off-ballance when going round the outside, the horse ran on past beaten horses to take 3rd only to be nabbed on the line in a photo. Impressive debutant here though (in fact 1st and 2nd were making their bow).




And onto friday. I won't be around the weekend, so will have to find some beer money today. York is at Newmarket I think, maybe Newbury and possibly in Hong Kong at the Olympics (well you never know).




I'm ignoring the first 2 races and will start with the 1.30.




Newmarket


1.30 Looks on paper to be fairly open and I';m actually agreeing with the RP on this. Roly Boy looks to have the best chance and is a decent price @ 6/1. Obviously the bookies disagree as I think he should start shorter than this. 2 yo's are not really my field so I will look for a bigger price too.


Jazacosta (11/1, Ladbrokes) beat Roly Boy LTO and whilst Roly Boy was thought to be unlucky that day, Jazacosta is a nice price. River Captain is a non-runner and I think these 2 are the only ones to follow in this race.




2.05 I guess Kevin Manning won't make the same errors on Lush Lashes (13/10, sportingbet) this time :-). Should win, no value though. Michita (7/2) is a nice horse and is likely to cause problems. Passage Of Time's (9/2) is a big threat too. I'm far too tentative here. Cape Amber (33/1) is going backwards. Dar Re Mi (9/1) is as honest as they come and can't be ruled out. Allegretto (20/1) actually offers the best value of the lot, shame its only 6 runners. All in all its a race to watch. If I was there, I'd back Lush Lashes to beat Passage Of Time and Allegretto in forecasts.




2.35 Great, a 2yo race in a massive field. Not for me, I'm afraid. Fitz Flyer (14/1, Sportingbet) offers the best value in the race if you are a nutter.




3.05 The market isn't giving much away here. It will be a cracking race. Equiano (9/2) looks good. Kingsgate Native (5/1) could follow up his Golden Jubilee win, I just don't like missing big prices and backing them after the fact. So I won't touch him on principle, pah. Borderlescott (12/1) will place but not win and Dandy Man (11/1) will frustrate like nomal. Captain Gerrard (9/1) can't be ruled out either. All in all, Borderlescott's consistancy allows me to back him e/w.




Half-Time...




3.40 Um, good luck.




4.10 Another good race, another hard race. I want to be against Earlsmedic (5/2 fav), far too short for a value hunter. So lay him. Obe Brave (16/1, boylesports, bluesq) and John Keats (10/1, Hills) if i had to stick my neck out. Hopefully I will find a big price winner to justify the waffle written here today.




4.40 Good, a short priced favourite to get beat. Trouble is I don't think Bellomi (10/11) can be beat. Averoo (12/1) and Royal Applord (16/1, sportingbet) are the only realistic e/w options in this race and with Spin Again (4/1, vcbet, sportingbet) also in the mix there isn't a standout betting opportunity here either. No bet, unless you're backing the favourite. :-o




5.15 Askar Tau (3/1, sportingbet) might give a little value to the rest of the field here. Whilst he's a good horse this is much more competative, and squeak of a betting opportunity here. Ollie George (14/1, bluesq, betdirect, sportingbet) is the one I'm going to take a chance with. No tips in tips box, but has my stamp of approval.




5.45 This race isn't going to get you out of trouble if you've done your dough. I'm sure there's a big price winner out there, but I can't see it and I won't lead you away from your 'guess'. Avoid outsider Multahab (50/1) *dothscap*... Oh ok... Royal Envoy (25/1, surprise surprise its sportingbet, my favorite bookies) New stable and if fit after 3 months off can go close.




Newbury


1.45 Saxford (16/1) is in a race with 2 short-priced favourites and it allows his price to be artificailly large. Spin Cycle (16/1, bluesq) can also take advantage of the odds. I'll be disappointed if one of these doesn't get into the frame.




Bath


8.00 Copperwood will win one day, I'm convinced. And I won't be on. And he'll land a right touch. He is priced up at 33/1 (Hills and Betfred) and they don't often get their horses wrong. But there's something nagging at me to put something on him. I don't know....... My head says no, my heart says yes. Lets toss a coin.... Heads it is, back him....... only at 33/1 mind.. If you can't get on, don't get on.




All in all there's a lot of chat and little substance. Hopefully I can put you towards some winners or placepot selections. It's a tough old day. Copperwood is the best value of the day, couldn't get the full bet on with Betfred unfotunately, I prefer the smaller meetings where I can spot the horses primed for a touch.

No comments: