Ooooh, I am bloody knackered.... 5 days work (that's about 60 hrs before you ask) ....... but a day at the cricket beckons tomorrow and England in the box seat. There may or may not be a post on saturday depending on 'technical' issues on saturday morning.
The football and Olympics starting gives us some other opportunities to bet on too...
I like paying particular interest to the divisional handicap markets. Last year Portsmouth, Stoke, Plymouth, Leyton Orient and Rochdale proving extremely profitable.
Premier League
Looks like the bookies aren't allowing much to get away this season.
Outright:
Manchester United look to have a little problem on their plates this year
Ronaldo out for the first 6 weeks
No squad improvement
Tough start to the season
Away from home the weekend after Champion's League games.
Meanwhile Chelsea look decent preseason and Deco's quality will unlock defences that they couldn't do previously. Of the 2 Chelsea @ 15/8 are the team to back at the start. Man Utd should drift at the start and must be bigger than 6/4 'in-running'.
Arsenal and Liverpool will have to wait some more.
Handicap Betting:
Little to get excited about this year. Fulham look ok at +46 (skybet) and if they get 44 points will definitely get placed. They look a better outfit than last year and are my tip.
Match Bets
I do like my match bets and missed out on a 5 timer on the last weekend of the season (Blackburn vs Villa) This season I want to be against Newcastle and West Ham, and Portsmouth and Boro look to have improved their squads in the summer. Not much else to get excited about in this division.
Portsmouth to bt Newcastle @ 8/11 (totesport)
Middlesbrough to bt West Ham @ 10/11 (totesport)
Championship:
Open as usual. Want to get right down to it. Birmingham, of the favourites, look the best equipped, however their manager hasn't done it and I can't be solid at such a short price. Clinton Morrison's gone from Palace today. Colin knows what he's doing and I think Palace @ 14/1 (skybet, William Hill) can continue the momentum of last season. Sheffield United fans must be tearing their hair out at their board after the obvious failure of Bryan Robson. Kevin Blackwell undid a lot of the bad work and made them the form side of the 2nd half of the season. I think they are very backable @ 12/1 (Boyle, PP, Skybet, Coral).
Handicap Bets:
Stoke last year punished out of line bookies and having seen Dave Penney's Doncaster over the last couple of seasons, I adore their football. The play-off NAP versus Leeds, this team could surprise so many. James Coppinger is a star in the making and the +29 Betfred are offering should be nabbed in double quick time. Plymouth are big again (+30, Hills), but aren't as strong this year. Don't be surprised if Swansea (+24, bet365) are better than their handicap too.
Match Bets:
Sheff Utd to bt Sheff Wed @ 1/2 (bet365)
Plymouth to bt Southampton @ 10/11 (bet365)
Doncaster to bt Barnsley @ 8/11 (bet365)
Palace to bt Charlton @ 8/11 (Bet365, William Hill)
Swansea to bt Cardiff @ 5/4 (bet365)
Preston to bt Burnley @ 5/6 (William Hill)
Birmingham to bt QPR @ 10/11 (Betfred)
Doncaster to bt Plymouth @ evs (betfred)
Sheff Utd to bt Wolves @ evs (Blue Sq)
Doncaster to beat Sheff Wed @ 6/5 (Blue Sq)
League 1:
Is Gary McAllister the man to lead Leeds to the title. Dunno. If he is then 3/1 is a steal. Not sure who else is going to take if from them if they aren't. Certainly not Leicester (5/1). No Experience... A Completely differnt league to the Championship and this is proved year in year out as the Forests, Man City's, QPR, Sheff Wed fail to acclimatise to the less cultured football on offer. Huddersfield have made some decent signings and finished the season strongly. 16/1 (Betfred, Coral, Skybet) seems fair. Leeds should win the title.
Handicaps:
Oldham (+18, Betfred) look pretty good value here, nothing much else on offer.
Match Bets:
Leicester have no experience of 'Division 3' and are very opposable at the 5/1 for the title. Leeds should beat them comfortably. Northampton finished the season strongly and are worth backing against a Millwall side that look weaker this season. John Sheridan have made some decent signings and look nailed on @ 8/11 to dominate Millwall.
Leeds to bt Leicester @ 4/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Northampton to bt Milwall @ 10/11 (bet365)
Oldham to bt Millwall @ 8/11 (Totesport)
League 2:
Shrewsbury have been hammered into 8/1 fav (from 25/1) and offer no value but have made use of Joe Hart's windfall money. I fancy Rochdale (12/1, Betfred, Ladbrokes) to get 'promoted', yes promoted.... Rochdale and promoted in the same sentence... Bradford... nah, Darlington out of form. Gillingham (11/1) are interesting, it shouldn't take them long to get into the swing of things. Notts County and Bury (33/1) need to be more consistant but have the personnel to be in the mix.
Handicap:
Notts County +20 (bet365). Grimsby were hot and cold last season but have signed the best centre-half in the division, so at (+18) this is pretty decent value. Will need to be more consistent at home though. Bury (+18) finished the season strongly and Andy Bishop (20/1) is value for top scorer.
Match Bets: I want to get on the side of Bury and Notts County in some lop-sided bets here. Accrington look safe this season thanks to the 3 teams on negative points but won't offer much. Barnet look weaker and must be opposed too.
Dag & Red to bt Accrington @ 5/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Bury to bt Barnet @ 11/10 (bet365)
Notts County to bt Chester @ 4/6 (bet365)
Aldershot to bt Port Vale @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Grimsby to bt Lincoln @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes)
Chesterfield to bt Darlington @ evs (Stan James)
Notts County to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Bury to bt Morecambe @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Lincoln to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (totesport)
Notts County to bt Morecambe @ 4/5 (totesport)
A quick word on the mighty Bees..... 20/1 is a little big and I've taken some, I think we need another year, but it isn't a strong division this season and I'd rather be on our side than against us :-)
right must get some shut-eye for the cricket, ......night all
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