Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase – Class 2 – 3m 7f

Big Shu won cosily last year, can he repeat the feat.

Overview

This is definitely my cup of tea, if not yours. Big Shu and A New Story have made a mockery of the bookies in the last few years. This is the 10^th running of this and I like some but not all of the trends. The last 3 winners have been 8 or 9 years old, so younger horses may now be the way forward. This is now on Day 2 and been shunted out of the way for Quevega's race on the tuesday.

9-year Trends

9/9 Age between 8 and 12 years old.

8/9 Irish Trained.

8/9 Placed in a Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross Country Chase. [7 that season]

8/9 Had won over 3 miles or more.

8/9 Were officially rated between 126 and 143.

8/9 Top 3 last time out, or top 3, last chase start.

7/9 Had raced within the last 40 days.

7/9 Carried less than 11 stone.

7/9 Had run in less than 18 Chases.

Additionally

Of the 16 races on the course, 14 have been won by horses from the first 3 in the betting.

Only 1 course debutant has won in the last 30 races over the fences.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

6yo 0-0-1

7yo 0-0-4

8yo 2-4-20

9yo 2-3-25

10yo 2-5-30

11yo 0-8-26

12yo 3-3-22

13yo 0-2-11

14yo 0-3-3

15yo 0-0-1

Contenders – average winner 3.9 stars

Balthazar King 6/1 **

Better than a 2 star as a former winner, but off the winter ground for almost 4 months, so the ground is good for him. Will run a good race i'm sure, but a short price.

Uncle Junior 25/1 **

This 13year old hasn't won when fancied before so unlikely to start now.

Big Shu 5/1fav ****

Last year's winner, up in the weights, but should run well.

Quantitativeeasing 16/1 **

No Cross-Country experience is a big negative, so at these weights is ignored.

Love Rory 10/1 ***

Won the Punchestown version (beating Big Shu), but unproven on the ground and at 6 years old, the experience might do him well for a future festival.

Hey Big Spender 40/1 *

Inexperience of the course a major negative and Pulled-Up over marathons the last 2.

Sire Collonges 12/1 ***

Off for 89 days and fails a few of the smaller trends. I don't like 11-07 on his back with that profile but he will love the ground.

Sizing Australia 20/1 ****

Former winner who may find one or two too good. Ground will be fine but is now 12 years old.

Bishopfurze 14/1 ***

Price-wise horse. Not placed in a Cross-Countrry is a negative and little racing on the ground.

Duke Of Lucca 33/1 ***

No wins for 2 years, and not a place in a XC.

Quiscover Fontaine 28/1 *****

Just shy of all the trends, but its a big one. NO win over 3 miles or more. So not for me.

Diamond Harry 22/1 ***

Hasn't won for ages too, but a top class chaser in his time. 4^th here late last year, so may come on for that experience.

Any Currency 12/1 ***

Placed here in November and December, so well respected. A nice weight and ground no problem. Fails a couple of minors, but that's ok.

A Stray Shot 25/1 ***

Can't have him, most of his form is at 3 miles only, and is only 7, but did place in the PP Hogan Cross Country behind Love Rory and Big Shu.

Sin Palo 66/1 ***

Should be outclassed in this. But is a 3 star. Shrug.

Star Neuville 7/1 ****

Not 77/1? 4 star, but I don't want him, all form on soft or worse and much of it at 3 miles or less.

Conclusions

The best trends horse, can't win thin in my opinion. Looks between Big Shu (5/1fav) and Balthazar King (6/1). ANY CURRENCY (14/1, boylesports, betvictor) has 2 places round here, has a nice weight, likes the ground and is the value.