Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4yo) – Grade 3 - 2m 1/2f

Flaxen Flare, in first time headgear, causes a massive shock last year.

Overview

A very competitive handicap in which I have had no success so far. For horses who aren't good enough for the Triumph Hurdle where big prices winner have taken this down the last 2 years.

9-Year Trends

9/9 Had achieved a RPR rating of 110 or more.

9/9 Had run within the last 37 days (7 within 25).

8/9 Had a flat rating of at least 85 (if rated).

8/9 Were from a Group 1 winning flat sire.

8/9 Had an OR of 124-133.

7/9 Had not won in their first 2 hurdles starts.

7/9 Had no more than 5 hurdle starts. (7 had just 3).

5/9 Had won last time. The 4 who had not had finished 5^th, 7^th and 4^th in a G2, and 5^th in a G1.

Additionally

4 of the 9 winners were fillies, from 10% of runners.

Contenders – 10 year trends averaged 4.0 stars

Noble Inn 22/1 ***

High-rated, compared to most winners. Only win was on good ground.

Gerdago 40/1 ***

High in weights for a poorly rated flat horse. Little good form on ground.

Le Fin Bois 33/1 ***

High in weights, but off for 4 months. No form on the going.

Ivan Grozny 9/1 ***

Was fancied for the Triumph before flopping last time. Just a 3^rd place on good from only run (flat).

Azembouy Premier 22/1 ***

All form on softer and no win in last 2. Better bets out there.

Solar Impulse 22/1 ****

Claimer takes off 3lbs. Derham is used sparingly in big handicaps by Paul Nicholls and has to be respected. However has no form on good ground so far.

Ballyglasheen 33/1 *

High in the weights. Poorly rated on the flat and exposed.

BUT, he does have winning form on good ground, his defeat last time was on heavy. Also has on a visor for the first time. I'm certainly not ruling him out here.

Dawalan 8/1fav ****

Almost perfect. Not worried and the fails are not relevant. (40 days off, lost a nose LTO). Ok form on the ground in France, but both hurdles wins her on soft.

Baradari 20/1 ****

Ran 6 days ago behind Harristown (disappointed in Imperial Cup on saturday). Form not franked but pretty decent on the trends. Both wins on heavy, so ground is an unknown.

Clarcam 16/1 ***

Slightly more runs than the normal winner, but good form on good ground. Flat Sire only won a Grade 2. Each-way chances.

Cadoudoff 40/1 *

Off for 74 days, Sire only a G3. Hasn't won too much and beaten by some of these.

Goodwood Mirage 10/1 ***

Grade 2 sire a slight negative, but well beaten in the big juvenile races this season (on bad ground).

Katgary 10/1 ****

Off for 119 days is his only problem. No form on good ground so far. Leave him.

Hawk High 50/1 ***

Not good enough on the flat, but ground is ok.

Astre De La Cour 28/1 ***

53 days off isn't the worst, fits all the other trends. Just soft/heavy ground form in the book so far.

Violet Dancer 22/1 **

Not good enough on the flat and his sire is out ranked by most here (G3 win only). No bet here.

Handiwork 40/1 ***

Poor horse on the flat. Both hurdle wins on softer ground in low grade events.

Azza 20/1 **

116 days off with the poorest sire in the field (Listed win only). Won a listed race himself in France, but race-fitness not assured.

Vandross 100/1 **

Has stamina, but needs softer ground for this. Poor flat horse with only a Grade 2 sire.

Keltus 33/1 ***

Ground is good, but off for 90 days. Slightly too many runs, but has a chance if good enough.

Certification 28/1 ***

Not a good flat horse, but consistent and ground should be ok Doubt he's good enough though. First time blinkers might fire him to the next level.

Raven's Tower 50/1 ***

Another that's done little on the flat. Best form so far on softer, but has 7 runs so far.

Orgilgo Bay 16/1 ****

Another with first time hood today. Poor run could be down to the ground last time. Has winning for on good ground. Price-wise horse today, has a chance.

Akdam 66/1 ***

Has hurdles form on this surface, but well exposed with 11 runs and did little on the flat. Big price.

Conclusions:

Flaxen Flare was a bad winner for the trends last year, so small stakes are advised. There are no 5 star horses, so everything has a chance. Best back a few or keep stakes to a minimum. I'm plumping for ORGILGO BAY (16/1) and CLARCAM (16/1) but there are a few others that could win. Ivan Grozny (9/1) and Dawalan (8/1fav) are 2 good horses who may be neutralised on the fast ground. Noble Inn (22/1), the top weight, will like the ground.