OLBG (David Nicholson) Mares Hurdle – Grade 2 – 2m 4f

Quevega (red/blue) leaves it late to record her 5th win.

Overview

This has been switched for Channel 4 to show Quevega's record 6^th win in this. I hope she does it, but I'm sure she won't be carrying my money again. The trends are obviously skewed towards Quevega and are only 6 years in, so we're all a bit guessy in behind.

6-year 'Trends'

6/6 Aged between 5 and 9 years old. [5yos have the best win record, but none have placed]

6/6 Raced between 5 and 14 times over Hurdles.

6/6 Rated within 23lbs of RP Top Rated. [Ideally within 5lbs]

5/6 Won over 2m4f or more. [Whiteoak won over 2m1f]

5/6 Had a Best RPR of at least 142.

5/6 Had won a race worth £12k. [Whiteoak won a £6k race]

5/6 Won last time.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

4yo 0-0-3

5yo 2-0-20

6yo 1-5-31

7yo 1-3-24

8yo 1-2-15

9yo 1-1-7

10yo 0-0-2

.

Contenders– 6 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars

Cailin Annamh 16/1 *****

No-one is anywhere near Quevega on ratings, but she's pretty good everywhere else. Grade 3 winner last time, but has been off the winter ground 145 days so drying ground will be in her favour.

Cockney Sparrow 8/1 *

Being 5 is my negative, so although we have 2 winners of this race (from 6 runs) there are no placed 5 yo's. She's not won over this trip either, hasn't achieved a good enough rating and fell last time, all turn me off her.

Down Ace 16/1 *

Too inexperience, not won over the distance in a Hurdle, not good enough so far, etc, etc.

Doyle Carte 33/1 **

Not won over this far and hasn't even won this season.

Glens Melody 14/1 *****

Another who's only failing is she's not as good as Quevega, perfectly good in everything else. You may be worried that all form seems to be on softer ground.

Highland Retreat 16/1 *****

Hits all the trends, but looks to be all about stamina, so might get caught for a turn of foot here.

Jennies Jewel 33/1 ****

Consistent without winning, but raced 7 times this year and this could be one too far.

L'Unique 33/1 *

Another 5yo and no form at the distance.

Quevega 4/6fav ****

Only a 4 star as she's getting on. Obviously she's the likeliest winner.

Sirene D'Ainay 10/1 *****

Ran superbly last year and just pipped in the final 100 yards. Should give a good account of herself again.

Uddy 100/1 *

Looks well outclassed in this. Fails many of the trends.

Epee Celeste 250/1 *

Another one plainly not good enough.

Hidden Identity 66/1 ***

Twice put in her place by Glen's Melody, and should find a few too good in this.

Little King Robin 100/1 *

Beaten twice by Cailin Annamh, not good enough to win this.

Pass The Time 100/1 *

Drying ground will help, but all winning at a low level at 2 miles.

Top Totti 66/1 **

Stamina in abundance, but she likely to be found wanting for pace today.

Conclusions

Quevega goes for a record 6^th win at the festival. Sirene D'Ainay may run her close again. If I have a bet it will be on CAILIN ANNAMH (16/1) (8/1 w/o Quevega at Skybet) and hope that she's fit to justify my support.