Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase – Grade 1 - 2m

Simonsig powers to a relatively bloodless win last year.

Overview

Not too many shocks over the years in this, no each-way winner from me certainly. This looks an interesting renewal with some good ex-hurdlers in the field. Rock On Ruby won the Champion Hurdle 2 years ago. He's a 9 year old now, so it would break a few trends for him to win this. In fact the whole trends thing hinges on whether the best hurdler or last year's Supreme winner are gonna get beat, as they are far from good on the trends.

10-year Trends

10/10 Aged between 5 and 8 years old. Five 9 year olds have failed to make the frame

10/10 OR of at least 147 if not un-rated.

9/10 Top 2 in all Chase finishes

9/10 Rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top Rated. The last 9 winners.

9/10 Best RPR of 153 or more. An Adjusted RPR of 160 or more. The last 9 winners.

9/10 Ran to a Hurdles rating of 143 or more.

9/10 Had won at Cheltenham or had a top 4 at a previous festival.

8/10 Had 3-5 Chase starts. Well Chief (2004) had 1 run and Simonsig (2013) had 2 runs.

7/10 Won a Novice Chase at 2m or 2m1f. All others had won over further.

Additionally

25 of the last 27 winners had finished 1^st or 2^nd on their last start.

22 of the last 23 winners started at 9/1 or less.

15 of the last 16 winners had not unseated/fallen in their chase career.

13 of the last 14 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 2-4-20

6yo 1-3-29

7yo 6-5-50

8yo 1-6-24

9yo 0-0-3

10yo 0-0-1

12yo 0-0-1

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.0 stars.

Brick Red 50/1 *

We know he's not good enough for this.

Champagne Fever 11/4fav *

An Arkle favourite with more holes than edam cheese. He's a good horse, but do we want one that has only run twice over fences, and fell last time thus not achieving a good enough rating so far. Do you want me to add that his only chase win is over 2m4f as well. I have to oppose him, after all what am I doing all this for.

Dodging Bullets 5/1 *****

To me, he's got the best profile here, he's top rated and has run in some good races and he has the fit of an Arkle winner.

Grandouet 10/1 ****

Lovely horse, but doesn't get it right in the big races. He could be a big shock winner, because he has the class, but hasn't won either of his chases.

Rock On Ruby 9/2 ***

Best rated hurdler in the race usually, but he 9 years old, and has only raced against 3 other horses in 2 races and therefore hasn't got a rating most Arkle winners have previously achieved. Ground will suit him.

Ted Veale 16/1 *

Ambitious entry here as I don't think he is good enough. No wins in 3 chases so far and smashed 31 lengths by Trifolium.

Trifolium 5/1 *****

Bounced back from a couple of defeats to annihilate the field in the Irish Arkle. Trainer says he'll like better ground, which is lucky because all his runs have been on wet Irish ground. Another perfect fit here.

Valdez 9/1 ***

Could be the dark horse of the field, but would be the worst rated hurdler to win an Arkle. Lack of a win here or good festival run isn't terrible but most winners have it in the book.

Western Warhorse 50/1 *

Let's move on to the next race.

Conclusions

A difficult Arkle to assess with plenty of holes in the market leaders. I have to side with DODGING BULLETS (5/1) who hasn't put a foot wrong really. The other horse to look closer at is Trifolium (9/2) who smashed some useful types in the Irish equivalent, but hasn't really run on this sort of ground. No each way selection, although Grandouet (11/1) is talented.