Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – Grade 1 – 2m 1/2f

Can Hurricane Fly win the for the 3rd time in 4 years.

Overview

It's going to be the best Championship race of the festival. There are at 5-6 live contenders from the 9 in the field, it's probably going to be a sit back and watch race for me.

10-year Trends

10/10 Had won at the distance.

9/10 Had run within the last 51 days.

9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 164 or more or had achieved an RPR of 156 previous

8/10 Were aged between 6 and 8 years old.

8/10 Had between 10 and 20 Hurdle runs.

8/10 Had won a Grade 1 Hurdle.

8/10 Had achieved a Top Speed of 152 or more.

8/10 Were rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse.

8/10 Had won a Class 1 Hurdle that season.

7/10 Had won last time out.

Additionally

25 of the last 30 winners had won last time.

22 of the last 24 winners had won that season.

19 of the last 23 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.

18 of the last 22 winners had placed at a previous festival.

18 of the last 25 winners had won at Cheltenham.

The only 5-year-old to win since 1985 was Katchit in 2008.

Since 1951, only 4 winners were 9 or older. Hurricane Fly was 9 last year.

No reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.

Since 1993, only 1 winner had not run in that calendar year.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 1-6-27

6yo 2-4-35

7yo 4-3-26

8yo 2-4-22

9yo 1-2-9

10yo 0-1-5

11yo 0-0-6

12yo 0-0-4

Contenders – average winner 4.1 stars

Captain Cee Bee 200/1 ****

Fits many of the trends mainly based on previous exploits (Supreme Novice Hurdle winner 2008). He's now 13 and is here to make sure there's a good enough pace for other horses.

Grumeti 100/1 ***

Doesn't look good enough to feature here.

Hurricane Fly 3/1jfav *****

2 times champion, nothing else to prove, fails the age and hurdle run stats, but is allowed to, being the champ.

Has hit flat spots in the last 2 renewals and can't afford to let them get too far ahead.

Jezki 10/1 ****

Just fails the top speed stat and finished behind Captain Cee Bee, Our Conor and Hurricane Fly last time. Basically, no-one fancies him any more.

Melodic Rendezvous 25/1 ****

The ground looks like it's gone against him now, has stamina to burn on softer ground, but should get outpaced now.. A little inexperienced but only a little shy of what a winner of this has achieved in the past.

My Tent Or Yours 4/1 *****

Look all out the winner of the Supreme last year, but found little off the bridle. He's the best at the trends, although he has just 8 Hurdle runs. A strong pace will help him settle and he could be looking the winner 2 out, but what will he find when push comes to shove.

Our Conor 9/2 ***

5 year olds have a bad record in this. Our Conor doesn't look like any ordinary 5yo, but he hasn't beaten Hurricane Fly in 2 runs this year, too many holes in his profile at his price. Next year.

Ptit Zig 50/1 ***

Another 5yo, his Trainer says he has nowhere to go on his rating so will just be making up the numbers here.

The New One 3/1jfav ****

Off the track since Christmas (where his final fence stumble cost him a win vs My Tent Or Yours), I don't like that in a Champion Hurdler. Mini fails in experience, top speed and not winning that race. But deserves to be as short as he is, and he's not done much else wrong.

Conclusions

Plenty of opinions around. My Tent Or Yours is the best stats-wise, but there are plenty of chances just in behind. I think HURRICANE FLY and THE NEW ONE are the 2 to put in the placepot. No each-way for me. Enjoy the best race of the festival.