BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase – Grade 1 - 2m

Sprinter Sacre's bloodless victory won't be repeated

Overview

Sprinter Sacre's setback has opened this up into an interesting affair. Sire De Grugy has done nothing wrong this year, but has been defeated twice in his 3 losses here at Cheltenham. Lots of old timers around too who may roll back the years.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won over extended 2m 1f trip.

10/10 Had run no more than 4 times in the season.

9/10 Had between 7 and 14 Chase starts.

9/10 Were younger than 10.

9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 170. All 9 had achieved an RPR of at least 166.

8/10 Had won a Grade 1 Chase.

8/10 Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated.

7/10 Won a Graded Chase last time out. [Exceptions were 2^nd, 3^rd and unseated, but won one the race before]

Additionally

28 of the last 30 winners had won over 2m2f or more, or were C&D winners.

28 of the last 32 winners won at a single figure price.

20 of the last 29 winners were placed at a previous festival.

14 of the last 21 winners had won at a previous festival. (19 of last 29)

12 of the last 15 winners were 5/1 or shorter.

11 of the last 12 winners were Grade 1 Chase winners.

The last 14 winners of the Arkle to run in the following year's Champion Chase all placed.

Only 1 winner aged greater than 10 since 1977. [previous winner Moscow Flyer in 2005]

None of the last 17 winners had run more than 4 times that season.

12 of the last 13 champions were beaten. [Only Master Minded retained his title]

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 1-0-1

6yo 2-3-9

7yo 2-1-10

8yo 1-2-24

9yo 3-3-23

10yo 0-7-16

11yo 1-3-19

12yo 0-0-1

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.0 stars

Arvika Ligeonniere 9/1 *****

This horse fits every trend. Shame he can't jump to the left which is quite important around here. He's won left-handed, but surely can't give ground at every fence and win this.

Baily Green 10/1 *

Ran well in last years Arkle, but is far too short for what he's achieved so far. Exposed with 22 Chases, not hit the required RPR so far, without a Grade 1 win and hasn't even won this season in 4 races. 8/1 REALLY!!

Captain Conan 9/2 **

1 run short of the experience needed for this, so that can be excused. But been off for 95 days with only 1 run this year (put in his place by Sire De Grugy) despite liking soft ground. Therefore hasn't hit the heights ratings-wise of a regular winner. They may go a little fast for him in this ground putting his jumping inexperience to the test.

Hinterland 12/1 **

Entered into the Arkle, where he has a chance. Can't see a novice (even a 2^nd season one) winnings this. Also hasn't won a Chase at the required extended 2 miles. (Hurdles only)

Kid Cassidy 12/1 **

Beat Sire De Grugy round here after SDG made a couple of errors. Good handicapper, who shouldn't be good enough for this. Last of 7 at Christmas on his last run but ground will suit.

Module 25/1 ***

Hasn't hit the heights to win this, with just a Grade 2 win under his belt. Novice Dodging Bullets gave him a scare last time (weighted to win). All form on softer.

Sire De Grugy 10/3fav ****

Worthy favourite with his wins this year. But 2 of his 3 defeats have been at Cheltenham (by Captain Conan and Kid Cassidy). Would be the most season-raced winner in a while, but has a favourites chance.

Sizing Europe 12/1 **

Consistent former champ and 2^nd to Sprinter Sacre last year. Thrashed by Benefficient over Christmas and on the downgrade now. Would be the oldest winner for donkeys years, but hopefully has place claims.

Somersby 18/1 **

Another decent old timer, but his jumping seems to have fallen apart. Falls down in the same categories as Sizing Europe. Beat Module (giving 3lbs) at Exeter but put in his place by Sire De Grugy this season.

Special Tiara 14/1 ***

Shock winner at Aintree (well to Channel 4 and the Racing Post) beating Sire De Grugy. Very disappointing this season, but drying ground may bring him back to the fore. Shouldn't be good enough, but place chances if back to last spring's form.

Wishfull Thinking 25/1 *

Old and exposed, and has never won a Grade 1 chase yet. Would be shock winner here especially on this ground, but a good honest Chaser who probably wants to be in the Ryanair Chase.

Conclusions:

The market looks to have got it spot on. SIRE DE GRUGY (10/3fav) looks the likely winner, but nagging doubts about Cheltenham need to be put to bed. Arvika Ligeonniere's (9/1) well publicised jumping problems left-handed can't be forgotten but that's reflected in the price. Special Tiara (14/1) is pricewise, so while respected, the 20/1 earlier in the week has now gone.