JLT (Golden Miller) Novices' Chase – Grade 2 – 2m 4f

Benefficient (right) beats Dynaste. They renew rivalries in today's 3rd race.

Overview

Only 3 years to look at, but there are a few things the winners had in common. We can use a bit of common sense with some of these.

3-Year Trends

All 3 winners had:-

Won at least a Grade 2 Chase or were 2^nd in a Grade 1.

Won over at least 2m4f.

Achieved a RPR of 151 or more. Adjusted RPR of 161 or more.

Aged 6 or 7.

Had at least 3 Chase runs.

Were Top 2 in all their Chase runs.

Had achieved a season win.

Had run within the last 53 days.

Were in the top 4 all season.

Additionally

7 of the 9 top 3 finishers had won last time out.

6 of the 12 top 4 finishers had run well in a festival handicap hurdle.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-0-1

6yo 1-0-12

7yo 2-5-17

8yo 0-1-3

9yo 0-0-1

Contenders

Captain Ocana 500/1 *

Looks outclassed

Double Ross 14/1 ****

Double handicap winner here this season, so deserves some respect. No winner was as old as this, but e/w chance here on ground he likes.

Felix Yonger 7/2fav ****

Top rated in this, but I thought he'd be better in the Arkle. Again, he's 8, which can be forgiven and has a decent chance but the ground may be a little quick.

Mozoltov 20/1 ****

He's also 8. Was the stable no1 in the Arkle, when 3^rd to Trifolium and Felix Yonger. Ground is an unknown but how good is the form? Is a big price though.

Off The Ground 25/1 **

Not won at a level that all other winner have so far, and only distance success was over hurdles. Also 8 years old and off for 89 days.

Oscar Whisky 6/1 ****

Now 9, but the best 2m4f runner in the field, over hurdles. Hasn't done too much wrong so far, but not been too convincing either. His duels with Tarquin De Seuil may be key.

Sizing Gold 12/1 **

Consistent at a lower level in his 2 runs so far, but is this too hot for him.

Taquin De Seuil 9/1 *****

Is the perfect horse if you are happy with the trends, I am and he has a good chance, ground is ok.

Uxizandre 28/1 ***

Plenty to prove after flopping last time, this is a lot hotter.

Wonderful Charm 11/2 ****

Gave Oscar Whisky 8lbs for a short defeat, and is well respected. Off for 3 months is a doubt but will like the ground, and should be in the mix.

Djakadam 10/1 **

Only 2 runs and not up to the level so far, but looks better stepped up in trip. He's only 5 so is a bit younger than the winners, one for the future.

Vukovar 9/1 *

Done nothing so far, but better up in trip, he's 5 with just 2 jumps and is jet to win as far as this on ground as fast as this, pass.

Conclusions

Interesting renewal with no shortie taking a chunk out of the market. TAQUIN DE SEUIL (9/1) is the trends horse and has to be a pick. Each way, DOUBLE ROSS (14/1) is in form and course, distance and going is fine.