Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) – Grade 3 – 2m 5f

 Medinas (right) takes the Coral Cup in 2013

Overview

Not a race for the favourite, I'm glad to say. No perfect trends and you can win it off a big weight, but hopefully we can get something at the competitive end of the race. I think Naiad Du Missolot (2008) is my only winner in the last 10 years).

10-Year Trends

9/10 Had won between 2m2f and 2m6f .

9/10 Had won at least in a Class 3 hurdle.

9/10 Had a break of at least 32 days from the racetrack.

9/10 Had won earlier in the season.

9/10 Were officially rated between 128-144.

8/10 Carried less than 11-03 in weight.

8/10 Were aged between 5 and 7 years old.

8/10 Had some sort of form and a top 6 finish last time out.

7/10 Had between 5 and 9 runs over hurdles

7/10 Had run no more that 4 times that season.

Additionally

11 of the last 13 winners carried less than 11-03.

11 of the last 13 winners had won no more than one handicap.

15 of the last 20 winners had won that season.

The last 20 winners were all officially rated less than 149.

Only one horse aged older than 9 has placed since 1999. [11yo Fiveforthree in 2013]

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 3-9-54

6yo 3-7-74

7yo 2-5-53

8yo 1-6-55

9yo 1-2-27

10yo 0-1-4

11yo 0-0-2

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 3.9 stars

Dunguib 12/1cfav **

Former bumper winner, but been off track with some problems. Philip Fenton seems to have done miracles to get him back so well judging by his excellent win last time. Obviously weight is a problem and age is against him

Whisper 20/1 ****

Big weight/OR his only niggle, but handles all ground and big handicap fields. Useful claimer takes off 5lbs. Chance.

Sametegal 33/1 **

Excellent 2^nd in the Greatwood Hurdle behind Dell'Arca. Will love the ground, but yet to race over this far and is ignored.

Meister Eckhart 20/1 *

Excellent 2^nd last year off similar weight, but this ground could be quick enough and doubtful he can win it.

Oscars Well 28/1 **

Flopped over fences and not a great return last time. Hasn't won for ages and hard to see him getting into this.

Cotton Mill 25/1 **

Looked like a future star, when falling in the Neptune a couple of years ago. Habitual choker at the moment. Trip/ground perfect, but fails a few mini-trends. Off for 102 days a worry as well.

Magnifique Etoille 25/1 ***

Another one thats been off a bit too long and also fails a few mini-trends. Only just stepped up in trip and too early to say whether he's up for it as he fell early last time after a bloodless victory the time before. Ground is good for him.

Far West 18/1 **

2^nd in last years Triumph, has really lived up to it this year and this is his first attempt past 2m1f. No experience of ground this quick either.

Get Me Out Of Here 16/1 *

A 10year old, off for longer than is usual, high in the weights, no win this season and out of form. Does run some big races though, no no. Leave him.

Clerk's Choice 40/1 **

Fails lots of mini's, but mainly not won at the trip. Been running on the all-weather, but no Hurdles win for 4 years. Ground will be fine and he was 2^nd at Aintree in a similar handicap.

Sadler's Risk 25/1 *

No real form this season and not won at this level or over the trip. NO, thanks.

Edgardo Sol 50/1 **

Lost his way, out of form and not won at trip.

Smashing 25/1 ****

Down at the decent weighted horses now (even though I said it wasn't THAT important, it still is a little). Passes a lot of trends, but no experience of ground this quick and I'll leave alone.

Timesremembered 33/1 *****

Good G2 novice win at the start of the season. Will prefer the better ground here and should outrun those odds. Shortlist.

Waaheb 18/1 ****

A lot was expected of him last season and he disappointed badly. Little experience of good ground or this disatance a worry.

Delll'Arca 12/1cfav ****

Good winner of the Greatwood here and excellent 2^nd in the Betfair Hurdle. Unseated in between. No experience beyond 2m1, but looked comfortable in his race, so that trip on this ground should be fine.

Ifandbutwhynot 28/1 ***

First time hood today (2 winners yesterday and 4 more, from very few, last year in 1^st time headgear). Ground should be fine but no form past 2m1f.

Party Rock 25/1 ****

Some uninspiring runs lately could be down to the ground, and will like this surface better, course winner but no win since May. Place chance.

Yesyoucan 40/1 ****

Small field winner, who'll like the ground, but found wanting at this level before.

Clondaw Kaempfer 12//1cfav ****

Pretty short for a horse that is yet to win this season, having been off for 3 months. No form on good ground, either.

Vendor 14/1 *****

Fits the trends well, but disappointing at this trip in the past on this ground so hard to recommend.

Bayan 12/1cfav ***

No form further than 2m1f, off the track for 129 days (from the flat) and just a horrible fit for one so short in the market. What have I missed?

Kaylif Aramis 22/1 ****

No winning form on better than soft, but given a good account of himself without winning on better ground. Place chance, but don't think he can win.

Noble Prince 40//1 ****

Former Novice Chase winner here. Short of top class in that sphere, but flopped on hurdles re-appearance last time. Now a 10yo. Plenty to prove, but is a good horse at the right end of the weights.

Indevan 20//1 ***

116 days off. Isn't the worst 3 star horse in the world, but last run was disappointing.

Calculated Risk 40/1 *****

Perfect on the trends. Off for 76 days isn't really what I'd want in a festival handicap, but 3 winners of this have been off longer. Seems to have been found wanting this year at the top level and his win last time came back down in class.

Son Of Flicka 20/1 **

Big gamble 2 years ago to take this. Too old now and fails a few mini-trends. Can't write off a former winner, but need to find himself again.

Foxcub 66/1 ***

Has form on the ground, but I'd still have like him to be a little closer on his last 2 runs (beaten 56 lengths). Fails a few mini-trends after that, but could outrun his odds.

Conclusions:

The ground is going to be key all day today and I'm shit at finding the winner, so be warned.

DELL'ARCA (12/1cfav). For the reasons above, he's unproven at trip, but looks like he'll get it, more to come from him and I hope he'll run well. WHISPER (20/1, 25/1 Stan James (only 4 places)) is high in the weights, but good claimer takes some off and with so many doubts on the ground with plenty of these, we know he'll be fine on it. TIMESREMEMBERED (40/1, betvictor, 5pl) can't be ignored at big odds being so spot on at the trends.

There are 5 places up for grabs, most online bookies do it apart from Ladbrokes, Stan James and Betfred.