Ryanair Festival Trophy Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

Cue Card misses this year's festival with injury.

Overview:
 Looks a decent renewal with some up and coming 2nd season chasers. There are some dodgy characters here too who will need to bounce back. Cue Card would have gone for the Gold Cup if he'd not been injured, even though I though he'd walk this.

9-Year Trends

9/9 Had an Adjusted RPR of 165 or more. Best RPR of 158+.

9/9 OR of 152 or more.

9/9 Aged 10 or younger.

9/9 Had finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.

8/9 Had won at the distance.

8/9 Had won at the course. 6 Runners up had too.

8/9 Had less than 5 runs since October.

7/9 Had finished in the top 3 last time out. The 2 that did not ran in a King George.

7/9 Had run between 5 and 17 times over fences. 1 with 22 Chases had won before.

Additionally

8 of the 9 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.

5 of the 6 winners since an upgrade to Grade 1 in 2008 had already won a Grade 1 Chase.

5 of the 6 winners since the upgrade had run in the King George VI Chase.

5 of the 6 winners since the upgrade were rated 162+ on official ratings.

5 of the 6 winners since the upgrade were rated 171+ by the Racing Post.

5 of the 6 winners since the upgrade were rated within 3lbs of the RPR top rated.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

6yo 1-2-5

7yo 1-3-10

8yo 2-6-27

9yo 2-4-26

10yo 3-2-13

11yo 0-1-10

12yo 0-0-3

13yo 0-0-1

Contenders – 9 year trends winner averaged 4.2 stars

Al Ferof 5/1 *****

Best on the trends, tough race last time. Hope he's got that out of his system.

Benefficient 4/1 ****

Won us some cash last year, not yet won at distance, but give him a chance, he won over a furlong shorter last year. Chance, but short enough in market on ground he's not won on.

Boston Bob 11/1 **

All to prove now after coming up short this year. Should have won the RSA last year and looks a 3 miler. Think they'll go to fast for him.

Cantlow (NR)

Dynaste 7/2fav *****

Decent favourite, his 5^th last time is a fail, but that was in the King George, so we'll forgive him that. Everything looks in his favour.

Hidden Cyclone 10/1 ***

Could have run in the Champion Chase. No course/distance win and inexperience on drying ground. Rathlin turned him over in similar conditions in the Galway festival.

Hunt Ball 25/1 ***

Surely his time has gone, on his best form he'd have a chance on this ground, but can't have him here.

Kauto Stone 50/1 *

Frustrating, as he's is talented, but has to be passed over here.

Medermit 33/1 **

1 race in 2 years, but ground will suit. Quirky.

Menorah 8/1 *****

Hits the trends, and ground will suit. But only 1 run this season and is he quite good enough.

Rajdhani Express 25/1 ****

Won the novice handicap last year and ran ok in the Paddy Power Chase, but off since then and this will be a big ask. Open to improvement though and ground is fine.

Rathlin 20/1 **

Twice the price of Hidden Cyclone, but conditions should suit better. If you forgive his last 2 runs on bad ground, he has an each-way squeak.

Conclusions:

Not sure I can find an each way here. Looks between AL FEROF (5/1) and DYNASTE (7/2fav) to me. Rathlin (20/1) might outrun his price but surely can't win.