Neptune Investment Management (Baring Bingham) Novices' Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 5f

The New One beat Rule The World in 2013

Overview

The middle-distance novices' hurdle, where the favourites usually prevail, generally because you can see them a mile off throughout the season, although Irish horses are often ignored. This looks a similar renewal.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were aged either 5 or 6.

9/10 Had achieved a Best RPR of 145 or better.

9/10 Had won at least 40% of their hurdle races.

9/10 Had at least 2 runs over the sticks.

9/10 Had won, or at least, placed in a Graded Hurdle.

8/10 Had not run at a previous festival, (ie last years bumper).

8/10 Had won over at least 2m4f.

8/10 Had finished in the top 2 in all Hurdles so far.

8/10 Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated.

8/10 Were bred for National Hunt (Point-to-Points or Bumpers)

Additionally

29 of the last 30 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out.

26 of the last 28 winners were from the top 6 in the betting.

20 of the last 21 winners were aged either 5 or 6.

13 of the last 15 winners were NH-bred.

No winner aged 4 since 1991. All 21 unplaced.

No winner aged 7+ since 1974.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

4yo 0-0-6

5yo 5-7-51

6yo 5-11-66

7yo 0-2-25

8yo 0-0-2

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.6 stars

Ballyalton 14/1 **

The wrong age (at 7) than many winners and hasn't achieved the required rating nor placed in a Graded Hurdle. Drying ground will suit.

Cocktails At Dawn 50/1 *

Clearly not good enough.

Cole Harden 50/1 ***

A better 50/1 shot than the one above. Similar profile to Ballyalton, but just not as good.

Creepy 100/1 ***

Outclassed.

Cup Final 20/1 *

Another one. This time it's Henderson/McCoy, which explains the terrible price.

Faugheen 9/4fav *****

This is more like it. He's perfect on the trends and a worthy favourite, but my nagging doubt is he should be going for The 3 mile race, non?

Fennell Bay 25/1 **

Hasn't been good enough so far and shouldn't be good enough for this.

Killala Quay 25/1 ****

This 7 year old passes all the other trends (except a 7^th in a hot handicap in the autumn.) Pulled-up last time and would have to be taken on trust that he's ok for this.

Knock House 50/1 **

Anotherwho isn't good enough and is passed over.

Lieutenant Colonel 14/1 ***

No runs over more than the minimum trip, why would I be backing him here, fails a couple of others too. Pass

Midnight Thunder 150/1 **

Pass

Rathvinden 7/1 ****

Beaten by Red Sherlock last time (giving him 3lbs for a 2 ½ length defeat). Has a good chance but is yet to win over 2m4 and only won 1 of his 3 hurdles (although they were both good races)

Red Sherlock 4/1 *****

Looks perfect on the trends and has course experience too. Value?

Royal Boy 7/1 ****

Done nothing wrong, but is a 7 year old. Beaten 44 lengths in only run on good ground.

Shanahan's Turn 50/1 ***

Not quite good enough and yet to do anything really.

Twelve Roses 100/1 **

Not good enough.

Conclusions:

The market has it spot on. I'm going to side with RED SHERLOCK (4/1) who has course experience over Faugheen (9/4fav), who may want further on the ground.