RSA Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 1/2f

 Lord Windermere was a winner for us last year

Overview

This novice Chase throws up a few Gold Cup contenders for the future, but it looks like last years renewal was not a classic. The trends are strong and the winner 'should' come from our shortlist.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were horses bred for National Hunt racing.

10/10 Had run within the last 53 days.

10/10 Had finished top 3 in a Graded Chase.

10/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 155. 9 had achieved an RPR of 150+.

10/10 Were rated to within 15lbs of the RPR top rated horse.

9/10 Had finished in the top 2 last time.

9/10 Had started between 3 and 5 Chases.

9/10 Were aged either 7 or 8 years old.

9/10 Had raced over hurdle AND fences between 9 and 16 times.

Additionally

49 of the last 49 winners had run that year.

24 of the last 26 winners had finished in the top 2 last time. 2013 winner was a ½ length loser in 3^rd.

19 of the last 20 winners had started at least 3 chases.

19 of the last 21 winners were British/Irish bred.

18 of the last 21 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.

12 of the last 14 winners were aged 7.

No horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].

Only 2 6-year olds have won since 1978 [Young Hustler (1993) and Florida Pearl (1998)].

Only 1 5-year old has won since 1950 [Star de Mohaison in 2006], their allowance has been reduced from 10lbs to 2lbs since.

No ex-flat horse has placed since 1994.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 1-1-5

6yo 0-5-18

7yo 8-8-55

8yo 1-5-26

9yo 0-0-12

10yo 0-0-1

11yo 0-0-1

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.6 stars

Annacotty 20/1 ***

Good Grade 1 scalp at Kempton, but is only 6 and has had a few more runs than most winners do. Should handle the ground, place chances.

Ballycasey 6/1fav ***

His defeat of Don Cossack look the form marker, however he has only 2 starts and that was over 2m5f. His inexperience marks him down and is worth taking on.

Black Thunder 20/1 ****

60 days off is his only blemish. That's a bit harsh, but the good ground could be a problem.

Carlingford Lough 8/1 **

Unseated last time at the last when squeezed by Don Cossack, I'll ignore that. However he's had a lot of runs and hasn't had good ground since his early hurdling days.

Corrin Wood 10/1 ***

The best rated of these, however that was in a Class 2 Chase. Everyone of the last 10 winners had finished top 3 in a Graded Chase. Beat Black Thunder last time. Wins are on all surfaces, but lots of small field form.

Don Cossack 14/1 ****

Travels really well every time. Effortless but sometimes he finds nothing and sometimes he'll battle back and surprise you. He's an each way price and looks backable.

Gevrey Chambertin 33/1 *

6 year old that failed to finish in his only Chase start, failing a few trends due to that. Not for me at the moment, but could be talented.

Just a Par 33/1 **

Turned over at odds on by Annacotty on his last run (December), so he's been off a while and will be tackling this ground for the first time.

Le Bec 14/1 *

Another 6 year old, thats been off for 3 months. Too long for most winners and not run at a level that will win this. But....but, good course form and the ground won't inconvenience him.

Many Clouds 16/1 *****

Perfect on the trends. Lost out to O'Faolain's Boy last time but is 4lbs better for a 2 ½ length defeat. Ground is a concern here.

Morning Assembly 8/1 ***

Defeat last time out, but 73 days off a worry as is his inexperience. Form is also on soft ground.

O'Faolain's Boy 16/1 ****

4^th last year in last year's Albert Bartlett. Disappointed in his first 2 starts, but started to fulfill his promise last time and fits many of the trends. Slightly inexperience and all runs on a slow surface so far.

Samingarry 100/1 *

Not up to scratch at the moment and it will be a surprise if he features here.

Sam Winner 14/1 ***

His 3 runs have had mixed results and they are at a lower level than some. Will handle the ground at that should count for something.

Smad Place 7/1 **

Unseated on debut, but bounced back with 2 wins, albeit at a low level. Has good form on good/soft, so could run on this surface too.

Overview

There are a lot of form lines in this but much of it is on soft ground. Difficult to suggest anything with confidence. DON COSSACK (14/1) tries 3 miles for the 1^st time but I always though he was a 3 miler and has won a Grade 1 chase on Good/Yielding this season. William Hill are doing 4 places on this race.