Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Novices' Chase (Amateur Riders') – Class 2 – 4m

Back In Focus heads home after the last.

Overview

This year it's named after Champion Jockey and larger than life character Terry Biddlecombe who died late last year. I think I've done ok in this, with Old Benny and Poker De Sivola winning me some cash, and Back In Focus was a good winning favourite last year. The stats are pretty basic and throw up half a dozen runners each year so its easy to pick the wrong one.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced over fences at least 3 times.

9/10 Were aged between 7 and 8 years old.

9/10 Had finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 3 miles.

9/10 Had achieved a hurdles rating of 119 in their career.

9/10 Had won over at least 3 miles in any sphere.

9/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.

9/10 Had been off the track for at least 30 days.

8/10 Had finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts.

Additionally

9 of the last 12 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.

Since 1989, only one 5 or 6 year old has won the race (Tricky Trickster in 2009)

Horses older than 8 are 0-4-38 in the last 10 years.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

6yo 1-3-26

7yo 5-8-77

8yo 4-6-60

9yo 0-3-25

10yo 0-1-9

11yo 0-0-2

12yo 0-0-2

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars

According To Trev 33/1 ***

Out of form to win this according to the trends, So hard to fancy.

Adrenalin Flight 66/1 **

Again, not winnig much and yet to win over 3m or more. Would be the worst rated hurdler if he won.

American Spin 50/1 **

This 10 year old is another out of form.

Beeves 20/1 *****

Fits all the trends, I'd rather he had a 3m Chase win under his belt (hurdles only) but others have won this without doing that. He's consistent but doesn't win enough for me to recommend him.

Firm Order 40/1 **

Looks to have too many runs (12) than any winner in the last 10 years and has only won 1 of those. He's also 9 and only ran less than 3 weeks ago.

Foxrock 3/1fav ***

He's the favourite, but he's only 6 and has to be taken on. Ran only 23 days ago is a minor negative.

Herdsman 28/1 **

Doesn't look good enough and is too old, and all form on softer than this.

Living Next Door 33/1 *

How many crosses does he have to his name. Lots.. next

Merlin's Wish 33/1 ***

Older than the average winner, consistent though, place chance at best.

Midnight Prayer 10/1 ***

Again, another older than we want him at 9. Looks like this 4 mile race will be a little far.

Milborough 33/1 *****

Hits all the trends, 2^nd to Ely Brown in the Towton Chase. Plodded on 1 pace on heavy, so he may get 4 miles then.

Rogue Angel 14/1 ****

Too young, so will have to be looked over. But hits all the other trends if you think he's another Tricky Trickster. This does look too far for him in all honesty.

Shotgun Paddy 11/2 *****

My idea of the winner, will get the trip, perfect on the trends and a real player in this.

Shutthefrontdoor 7/2 *****

Another that hits the trends, but 4 miles may test his limits and is short enough.

Suntiep 10/1 ****

Just the 2 Chase starts, is not what I want in a novice chase at the festival. If you can look past that he fits well. However only form at 3 miles, so one to leave alone in my humble opinion.

Conclusions

The market has got it right recently, and I think SHOTGUN PADDY (5/1) is the best bet here. I might have a dabble on MILBOROUGH (33/1) as he should get the trip at a price.