Weatherbys
Champion Bumper – Grade 1 – 2m 1/2f
Briar Hill, a 25/1 shot wins for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins
Overview
This year looks an averge renewal behind the market leaders. The trends aren't the
strongest, but I suggest you've won your last race and won at least
half of all starts. That makes just 8 horses to chose from. oh except that I picked another.
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Won
last time.
9/10 Were
aged 5 or 6.
9/10 Had
won a bumper with 13 or more runners.
8/10 Hadn't
raced for at least 33 days. [Hairy Molly (17) and Cousin Vinny (22)]
8/10 Had
achieved a RPR of 118 or more. (Exceptions had won their only start).
7/10 Had
won a bumper worth at least £4,000. (2 exceptions had won their only
start)
7/10 Irish-Bred.
Additionally
19
of the last 21 winners had won last time out.
17
of the last 21 winners were Irish-bred.
16
of the last 21 winners were trained in Ireland.
16
of the last 21 winners had won a bumper with 14 or more runners.
14
of the last 21 winners were from the first 6 in the market.
15
of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 1-4-41
5yo 6-12-136
6yo 3-4-55
Contenders –
10 year trends
winner averaged 3.8
stars
Assam Black 50/1 **
Form on good, but beaten little. Could outrun his odds,
but better horses out there.
Black Hercules 9/1 *****
Drifting all morning, not sure why, the ground is
probably ok, and he's excellent trends-wise.
Definitely Red 25/1 ****
'Only' won an 8 runner bumper, but heavy ground form
only.
El Namoose 16/1 ***
Only 1 run, and win, on good to soft. I don't have a
problem with him.
Golantilla 16/1 ***
3rd in this last year. Talented, but turned
over on return last time. Place chances again, but will he win.
Joshua Lane 33/1 *
2nd in a listed bumper (behind Seven
Nation Army). But a 1 star here. Shrug.
Killultagh Vic 10/1 ****
Top rated so far. Beat Golantilla last time, but
only 17 days ago. All form on soft/heavy.
Mountain Of Mourne 150/1 *
Can't be good enough, but 2nd on his only
start on good.
Neck Or Nothing 25/1 ***
115 days off.. Hmmm. Thrashed by Red Sherlock (NINHdl)
in a bumper last time, but a win at a lower level on good.
Oscarteea 66/1 *
Not good enough.
Our Kaempfer 25/1 **
Not won a £4 race, but did win on good first time up.
Seven Nation Army (NR)
Shaneshill 7/1jfav *****
Worthy favourite, and won last time on good/soft. So
ground not taken as a given.
Silver Concorde 16/1 ***
Great 2nd in the the big bumper at Galway in
the summer, so ground will be fine. Hasn't won half his bumpers yet,
but more to come from him.
Stack The Deck 50/1 ***
Put in his place by Black Hercules and all form
on softer.
Third Act 33/1 **
Acted on the ground with a 2nd place, but all
at a low level, so others preferred.
Value At Risk 14/1 ****
Form is on softer, but decent trends-wise and did win on
good-yielding.
Vigil 7/1jfav ****
Form on soft/heavy, but decent on the trends and is
joint favourite.
Zeroshadesofgrey 50/1 ***
Ran just 3 weeks ago and not won a big race like most of
the winners.
Izzini 50/1 **
Only filly in the field and won all 3 starts. No run for
11 months, but ground is ok.
Coyaba 66/1 *
Not even a run at 2 miles yet in his 3 bumpers. Not for
me.
Modus 10/1 ***
The best of the 4 year olds. Similar profile to Cue
Card, both runs of good-soft and soft. Has a chance.
Royal Vacation 50/1 *
Not good enough on the basis of his only run so far.
Conclusions:
Willie Mullins has the 3 of the favourites here and they
all have a very good chance. SHANESHILL (7/1jfav) and BLACK
HERCULES (9/1) are the clear pick of those on the trends and
jockey bookings. 2 at an each-way price are VALUE AT RISK
(14/1) and SILVER CONCORDE (16/1), who will like the ground
and haven't done too much wrong.
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