Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase – Listed – 2m 41/2f

Rajdhani Express causes a shock last year.

Overview

In it's 10^th year, can't say this is a favourite race of mine, with a compressed handicap keeping the top-weights in with a chance and plenty of horses hitting most of the trends this year even though they don't look likely to win.

9-year Trends

9/9 Aged under 9.

8/9 Had finished in the top 2 last time out.

8/9 Had raced over fences between 3 and 6 times.

8/9 Had won over at least 2 miles, 2 furlongs.

8/9 Official Rating of 132-142.

7/9 Had last run between 30 and 45 days ago.

7/9 Finished top 4 in all completed chases.

7/9 Hadn't won more than 1 chase.

7/9 Carried weight of 11-04 or less.

Additionally

Only 1 horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.

7 year olds have won 6 from 63 runners, all other ages are 3 from 91.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 1-1-14

6yo 1-7-28

7yo 6-5-63

8yo 1-4-32

9yo 0-4-14

10yo 0-1-4

11yo 0-0-1

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars

Ericht 10/1 *****

I don't usually think about backing top-weights, but in this the bottom-weight carries 11 stone. No-one's perfect on the trends and he fails a couple of minor ones, so has a big chance.

Up To Something 50/1 ***

Very disappointing last time in a C4 Chase. Not won chase this far, so will find this hard.

Grandads Horse 40/1 ***

Off the track for 4 months, so not for me. Fails a few mini-trends, but I can't rule him out completely.

Baby Mix 16/1 ****

Fails a few mini-trends, but been off for 80 days, nothing really to put you off aprt from the lay-off.

Art Of Logistics 9/1 **

Short price for a horse without winning form past 2m4f. His recent form suggests that he's been outclassed in better events. First time visor on today may help matters.

Manyriverstocross 10/1 ****

Hasn't yet won a chase over as far as this at the age of 9 suggest that he's not the best 4 star horse this year.

Persian Snow 20/1 ****

Fails a few mini-trends, but generally I think he has a chance. Latest form is on bad ground and that may well be his problem here.

Pendra 8/1fav ***

This is McCoy's mount. He's favourite, yet has been off the track since Christmas and has never won (and hardly run) over more than 2 miles. Who makes this stuff up.

Present View 9/1 ****

Very similar profile to Persian Snow. Fails a few small trends, but on the whole he's a better bet than Pendra.

Attaglance 16/1 ***

No win for 2 years, and looks more exposed than prevous winners. No thanks.

Dursey Sound 20/1 *****

While he's a 5 star horse, his form just doesn't stack up. 2 unseats and and 2^nd/3 and a 2^nd/2 don't inspire me to recommend him.

Close House 16/1 ****

Lost his way this year, form is so bad to be true. Still a 4 star, proving that theses trends are a little flaky. I think he's a 2 star myself.

Ahyaknowyerself 28/1 ****

No win over this far, no bet.

Festive Affair 16/1 *****

5 star. Hmmm... Just a Point-to-point win over as far as this. Not recommended.

Buywise 20/1 *****

Looks to have stamina to burn, yet all form on heavy ground. Another one great on the trends, but does'nt do anything to me.

Tony Star 25/1 **

At last a horse that won't win that's reflected in the trends. Won't get the trip and has been off for 143 days.

Buthelezi 20/1 *****

Been off for 99 days which is a big worry in a Cheltenham handicap. Passes everything else though. Big field experience also against him.

Ohio Gold 25/1 ***

Picked him out last year and he placed in this. Place chances again but 0 wins from 9 starts a big negative.

King Vuvuzela 22/1 ****

4^th in a similar handicap in Ireland last time. Handles the ground. Has a chance as he seems to have clicked in his races. Downside is that 10 Chases is more than enough and fails a couple of minors.

Gardefort 33/1 ***

Horse is 5 and we know that these have a poor record in Handicap Chases, just 1 win in 10 years. All French form is as a juvenile and I 'd be surprised if he competes at the business end.

Conclusions

After going thruogh the card, the trends are really not helpful. I will have a bet. We'll go back up to the top for our main bet. ERICHT (10/1) was promising but failed to deliver when hurdling, can only improve after 3 runs and the ground will benefit him. I'll throw out an each way bet, but this doesn't look like the getting out stakes after day 1. KING VUVEZELA (22/1) is a tentative pick at a price.