Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 3m 1/2f

Easy peasy for Golden Chieftain last year, he tries to retain his title this year.

Overview

The first chance of a big priced winner as we take on the first handicap of the festival. I can't say I've had much success in this over the years. We don't have a great number of trends, but they are pretty strong. No non-stayers please and something towards the bottom of the handicap as well.

10-year Trends

10/10 OR between 129-143.

10/10 Carried no more than 11-02 in weight.

10/10 Aged between 7 and 10 years old.

10/10 Won over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Had run within the last 47 days.

8/10 Finished in the top 3 last time.

8/10 Had run less than 10 times over fences.

Additionally

The last 15 winners were aged between 7 and 10.

The last 14 winners were official rated no more than 143.

One horse aged 11 or more has placed since 1997.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

6yo 0-2-14

7yo 3-9-32

8yo 4-2-41

9yo 1-9-46

10yo 2-4-32

11yo 0-1-20

12yo 0-0-8

13yo 0-0-3

Main Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars.

Cantlow 12/1 ***

Is weighted so that its' gonna be hard for him to win. And no run for 87 days isn't a plus.

Vino Griego 33/1 *

Looks exposed and with too much weight. Just 1 completion in his last 4 suggests he has to be opposed.

Pacha Du Polder 33/1 *

Not won at 3 miles yet, add that to his weight and he's been off for 10 months. He's one to avoid.

Restless Harry 20/1 ***

Has chances as he's a decent horse, however too high in the weights to get stuck into and although being a 10yo isn't a disadvantage, both the other winners carried less than 11st.

Golden Chieftain 25/1 **

Won this off 132 last year. He's now 146 and has just 1 hurdles run this season. 2 stars is a little harsh I guess, but weight is key in this I fear.

Hadrians Approach 10/1 ***

3^rd in a substandard RSA Chase last year. Weight is a factor and been off the track for too long in my opinion.

Holywell 9/1jfav ***

Another one which gets mullered due to the weight and his OR counting as quite important. I think he's better than that and has a decent chance.

Vintage Star 16/1 ****

Getting close to an acceptable weight now, on the cusp. 62 days off is not insurmountable.

Ackertac 33/1 **

Exposed, out of form, too high in the weights and off for 69 days. I'll look elsewhere.

Ma Filleule 25/1 ****

Claimers are a negative at the festival, but Nico De Boinville has an excellent strike rate for a claimer (18%) this season. Off the track for 74 days and 6 year olds are too young for this race.

Green Flag 14/1 ****

Slightly too high in the weights, but been running well in novice chases before unseating last time. Has to have a chance of a place.

Renard 40/1 ***

Exposed chaser yet to win at this distance, and with a run just 10 days ago has to be left alone.

The Package 25/1 **

Off since last years festival and a bit long in the tooth now.

Shakalakboomboom 33/1 ****

Hardly raced since fading in the 2012 Grand National when looking good for a place. Might be using this as a stepping stone for that race rather than getting any prize money in this. Hits most of the trends though, out of form being his only no-no.

Relax 40/1 ****

Been running in a few marathons, so pulled-ups aplenty. Too many chases than a normal winner. Won't carry my money, but is a 4 star.

Time For Rupert 16/1 *****

Beaten 80 lengths in 3 runs this season, but 2^nd (2 lengths) in a Veterans handicap last time. Classy hurdler that hasn't really blossomed as a chaser and is now 11. Hits most of the trends (I'm happy to ignore his 1 run more than most winners) and could run a bold race.

Muldoon's Picnic 33/1 *****

Hits all the trends, but his only win at this type of distance, was as an outsider of 4 where 2 horses fell and that was 63 days ago.

Alfie Sherrin 9/1jfav **

This 2012 winner has halved in price since AP McCoy chose him over Cantlow. Too old at 11 and been off for over 3 months now.

Fruity O'Rooney 25/1 ***

Carried my money in the last couple of big races, but he's 11 now and too old for this. Will run his race at the front for sure, but wasn't winning this in his younger days.

Wrong Turn 16/1 *****

Could be anything, certainly the sort that Tony Martin could get ready for this, only win at 3m was a Point-to-point but Bensalem did the same a few years ago.

Standing Ovation 20/1 *****

Prefers faster ground and has struggled over the winter, hit all the trends apart from the form angle.

King Massini 33/1 *****

Off the track since December. That's a worry, but perfectly acceptable apart from that. Ground will suit and I'm tempted.

Tour Des Champs 20/1 *****

Another that's been running over some marathon trips. 3rd in the BetBright Trophy (was fav) and 25/1 is far too big surely.

Solix 50/1 ****

Ran on friday and hasn't won at the trip before. A 4 star horse though. Can't be backed

Conclusions

I was going to scratch my head and say no bet. It looks a very hard handicap to crack, but right at the bottom, TOUR DES CHAMPS (20/1) jumped off the page. He looks a massive price, unless I've missed something. KING MASSINI (33/1) has been off the track a little too long, but may be underrated. He's my second pick. Wrong Turn (16/1) could be anything and it wouldn't be a surprise if he won. Time For Rupert (16/1) has the looks of 2010 winner Chief Dan George about him and I may add him to the portfolio in the morning.