Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 41/2f

Carrickboy, now a non-runner today, wins easily at 50/1 last year.

Overview

Usually a shock, so good luck with finding a winner. Trends are pretty strong, but lots of horses pass the majority. Hopefully with the ground good, we can rule out a few.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won at least a Class 3 Chase.

10/10 Had won over at least 2m3f.

9/10 Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicaps.

9/10 Had less than 17 Chase starts.

9/10 Had run within the last 42 days.

9/10 Officially Rated btween 128-139.

8/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.

8/10 Carried less than 10-11.

8/10 Aged between 6 and 9.

7/10 Had run at a previous festival.

Additionally

24 of the last 26 winners were rated less than 142.

18 of the last 22 winners had a top 4 finish last time out.

18 of the last 22 winners had raced at a previous festival.

12 of the last 13 winners were at double-figure odds.

Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951.

Only 1 of the last 15 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the last 20 years.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-1-3

6yo 2-4-21

7yo 2-2-37

8yo 3-13-63

9yo 1-5-37

10yo 1-4-33

11yo 1-1-16

12yo 0-0-3

13yo 0-2-3

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.5 stars

Champion Court 14/1 **

Decent horse, just shy of the top grade. Top weight even a 7lb claimer won't help too much. Grouns will be fine.

Johns Spirit 10/1 ***

Paddy Power winner, which isn't a good thing giving the handicapper a chance to kill you. Off for 89 days isn't good either, but trip ground and course are fine. Place chances.

Colour Squadron 17/2fav **

NO wins in 6 chases, yet the RP tip him for this. He'll run well, but always finds one too good.

Tap Night 12/1 ***

Not won at this class. Bound to find a couple too good.

Third Intention 16/1 *****

High OR, but weight is fine, Looks to want further to be honest, especially on this ground. Is a 5 star horse on the trends though.

Ballynagour 16/1 ***

Not run since the Paddy Power. Don't like that. Disappointed when 8^th last year (started favurite) and unproven on the ground.

Tatenen 33/1 ***

Everything looks in his favour, but at 10 yo I want to look elsewhere. Winning form is over 2m or 2m6 and is well exposed now.

Bless The Wings 25/1 ****

Been running averagely on bad ground. Drop back will suit but unproven on the ground. First time blinkers may find a bit of improvement here.

Carrickboy (NR)

.

Bennys Mist 33/1 ****

Most wins are on heavy, so even though he's good on the trends, will have to be left alone.

Sraid Padraig 9/1 ****

Another with most wins on heavy and been off for over 3 months now. Too short.

King Edmund 50/1 ****

Exposed 11yo. On the plus side the ground is fine.

Wetak 33/1 ****

2 wins on Very Soft at 2m2. Fail

Nadiya De La Vega 20/1 ****

Needs to step back in trip after poor run last time. Trip and ground are good and has a chance. First time visor on could make all the difference.

Firth Of The Clyde 20/1 ****

Not won past 2m2 and ground unknown.

Shangani 20/1 *****

Few penalised horses win at the festival. He's the only horse perfect at the trends, but this ground is a worry.

Mr Cracker 66/1 *****

Flopped the last 4 times. Has won on the ground, but also ran badly twice, if this is a handicap coup, then it's well disguised.

Giorgio Quercus 20/1 *****

Trip and ground are fine, but Cheltenham is not. Off for 108 days , so the 5-star horse is left alone.

Act Of Kalanisi 50/1 ****

Not won a Chase past 2m, but ground will help.

Sew On Target 25/1 ****

Low level form at trip and form. Place chances, but shouldn't be winning.

Gallox Bridge 100/1 ****

Only hurdle form at the trip and ground. Probably shouldn't be 100/1, but probably won't' place either.

Tartak 33/1 ***

Off for 11 weeks, races over further these days, but could roll back the years.

Highway Code 40/1 ****

Another off a while, and unproven at trip.

Christopher Wren 66/1 ****

No Chase wins over this distance, dry ground will help him, each way possiblities carrying 9 stone 9lbs perhaps.

Conclusions

The trends are not helping. NADIYA DE LA VEGA (25/1 skybet, 5pl) has lots in his favour. The first time visor could make all the difference. I may back some other later, but this is a small stakes race.