Ladbrokes World Hurdle – Grade 1 - 3m

Solwhit was a worthy winner last year, but missed this years through injury.

Overview

Big Buck's goes for his 5^th win in this, Annie Power steps up to 3 miles for the first time. It's a match. Can something else come out of the pack? Trends are strong but skewed towards just 2 winners.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Finished in the top 2 last time.

10/10 Less than 5 runs since August.

10/10 Top 2 in all hurdle runs that season.

10/10 Had previous festival experience.

10/10 Aged between 6 and 9.

9/10 Had achieve a RPR of at least 165.

8/10 Had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Had run in between 8 and 20 hurdle races. (Big Buck's last 2 wins excepted)

Additionally

17 of the last 20 winners had run in the previous year's festival.

10 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.

No Champion Hurdle contender has won since 1992.

No winner was out of the top 2 in the previous year's renewal since 1981.

The last 26 winners finished in the top 4 last time.

The last 14 winners finished in the top 2 last time.

The last 13 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.

No 5-year old has ever won.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-3-8

6yo 3-7-30

7yo 2-3-35

8yo 2-1-29

9yo 3-4-22

10yo 0-2-8

11yo 0-0-5

13yo 0-0-1

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.5 stars

At Fishers Cross 9/1 ***

Some terrible jumping early in the season from the leading staying novice last season. Better last time, but still beat by a 66/1 shot. Only run on Good/Soft (or better) was a Novice win at Aintree last year, so ground unproven.

Big Buck's 4/1 **

I was happy with his comeback run, 3^rd behind At Fishers Cross and Knockara Beau. Some we're not.

Still the best 3 miler out there. But not going to be better than he was aged 11. Not 10yo has placed in last 10 years and fails loads of trends in this (some a bit iffier than others.) Ground is fine.

Celestial Halo 33/1 **

Second last year at a huge price, place chances I'm sure but very poor last time and is a little too old now. Ground an unknown.

Mala Beach 100/1 ***

Looks outclassed, nd no form on ground.

Medinas 50/1 ****

Coral Cup winner last year. Probably not good enough to win but consistent and ground is fine. 50/1 is a massive price.

More Of That 10/1 ***

Hasn't beaten much so far and not guaranteed to stay. Ground will be perfect if he does.

Reve De Sivola 50/1 **

Should be up there as he's an out and out stayer, but they might leave him behind this year. 50/1 for a Grade 2 3 mile winner at Cheltenham is a little ridiculous though.

Rule The World 10/1 ****

Nothing to suggest he'll get the trip and he's never run on ground this fast. Decent on the trends though.

Salubrious 28/1 ***

Paul Nicholls only winner at last years' festival. Everything is fine for him, but beaten by Reve De Sivola and More Of That this year. Place chance at a price.

Zarkandar 14/1 ****

Beaten by Annie Power and also steps up to 3 miles for the first time. If he stays he has the quality to do something. Will need the ground to stay good.

Annie Power 7/4fav ***

With her 7lb allowance, she's the top rated horse here. Unproven on the ground, but will need it to get the trip. Less experience than all winners and fails others obviously because she's trying 3m for the first time.

Quevega (NR)

Conclusions:

No perfect horses this year, so trends will be broken. Looks like a match between Annie Power (7/4fav) and BIG BUCK'S (4/1). However at the prices, I have to side with the big man. Each-way, MEDINAS (66/1, boylesports) is huge and I'm tempted. He's 16/1 (w/o Annie And Buck's at bet365) and 22/1 (w/o Annie).