Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) – Listed - 3m

Holywell wins last years at 25/1

Overview

Limited trends on offer and nothing too concrete. This renewal has a compressed handicap, so the top weights should be ok.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had run within the last 61 days.

9/10 Were aged between 6 and 9. [Buena Vista retained his title aged 10]

8/10 Had won a Class 3 hurdle. [Oulart won 9k Ir race]

8/10 Carried less than 10-12 in weight.

8/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Officially rated between 129 and 142.

Additionally

9 of the last 18 winners had won last-time out from only 20% of runners.

6 of the last 8 winners were aged 8 or older.

The last 13 winners were rated lower than 143.

The last 10 winners were 10/1 or bigger, including 2 50/1 winners.

Only 1 5yo has won in the history of the race.

Only 1 of the last 17 winners had won it's qualifying race.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-5-22

6yo 2-7-48

7yo 1-7-59

8yo 3-8-52

9yo 3-1-23

10yo 1-1-15

11yo 0-0-13

12yo 0-0-1

13yo 0-1-2

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.1 stars

Fingal Bay 7/1jfav ***

Would be one of the highest rated winners, but has a chance due to the compressed weights. The trends are punishing him twice, so has a chance.

Southfield Theatre 25/1 ***

Not won a Class 3 yet, so a bit high in the weights for me.

Quartz De Thaix 50/1 **

Struggled on the winter ground, but, at 10, looks too old.

Trustan Times 33/1 ***

Not won this season, needs to get back to how he beat Holywell 2 years ago off top weight in a good handicap but better groun should help.

Jetson 12/1 ***

Ground should be against him here.

Seefood 14/1 *

Not won at distance or class yet. Decent 2^nd last time though, but doesn't win much and has been off for 75 days.

Mickie 28/1 ***

She could have run in the Mares Hurdle, so is respected. Dour stayer who might get outpaced here.

Grand Vision 14/1 *****

Consistent, but wins are few and far between. Not won on faster than good/soft.

On The Bridge 16/1 ****

Off the track for 146 days, so I will pass him over with no 3 mile win over hurdles (2m7f). Ground is fine.

Pineau De Re 33/1 ***

Too old and no class/dist win over hurdles.

If In Doubt 7/1jtfav ****

Favourite with no win over this far. Close form with Fingal Bay.

Vics Canvas 50/1 ****

Too old and little form at the distance.

Uncle Jimmy 20/1 *****

All winning for on soft ground, but ran well on good as well. Each way chance.

Top Wood 20/1 *****

Another you couldn't rule out but won his qualifier and they usually get stung by the handicapper. Each way chance though. 1^St time tongue-tie today.

Mister Dillon 25/1 *****

Big chance of a place here, no negatives really.

Lie Forrit (NR)

Pateese 50/1 *****

Not been winning much, and certainly not on good ground. Fits all the trends though.

First Fandango 66/1 *****

Badly out of form, but ground will suit. Need to improve even if he's perfect trends-wise.

Cross Kennon 40/1 ****

Gives his all, but too old now.

Utopie Des Bordes 25/1 *****

Ground will suit, but not really in form.

Crowning Jewel 25/1 ****

Not won at the distance but has run well. Ground will suit and has an each-way chance.

Broadway Buffalo 25/1 ****

Will like the ground, but needs to up his performances so far.

Josies Orders 12/1 *****

No win on good so far but has won on good/soft and is in good form. Claimer takes off 5 for Jonjo.

So Fine 28/1 ****

Off the track for 3 months, but has run well this season here and the ground will be perfect. Chance if fit.

Conclusions

Very very competitive, a couple of tentative each-way selections are. CROWNING JEWEL (25/1) and SO FINE (28/1), both at the bottom of the handicap. Could throw in Josies Order (12/1) and Uncle Jimmy (20/1) as well, but lets limit the stakes. 90% of the field has a chance here.