JCB Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 1f

Countrywide Flame went on to finish 3rd in the Champion Hurdle 3 days ago

Overview

Not the graveyard for favourites that it once was. Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap to the festival all 7 winners had achieved a RP rating of at least 133. Countrywide Flame was a bit of a shock, but generally the market leaders have held sway.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced within the last 55 days.

9/10 Had raced at least 3 times.

9/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.

9/10 Were from a flat Group 1 sire.

8/10 Had won last time out.

7/10 Had achieved a RPR of at least 133. (the last 7 since the Fred Winter was introduced)

Additionally

18 of the last 22 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles.

16 of the last 19 winners had won last time out.

16 of the last 19 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.

7 of the last 9 winners had made their hurdling début after December 1^st.

Only 1 winner was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.

5 of the last 6 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter) came from the first 4 in the betting.

Ireland had won just 1 of the last 14 renewals.

Only 6 Irish horses have been placed in the last 8 years (from 54 runners)

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 3.9 stars (4.1 in last 7 years)

Diakala 14/1 ***** A 5 length beating from Our Conor last time. Still a value price though. If Our Conor wins, he'll be up there.

Far West 5/1 ***** Perfect trendswise (apart from a debut before December).

Hidden Justice 16/1 **** Fits most of the trends, but falls down on the one I want, a previous rating of 133+. Won both starts though, so done nothing wrong and beat a decent horse in Onlyhorsenfoolsies by 15 lengths on debut.

Our Conor 7/2jf **** Beat Diakala. He's the great Irish hope. Doesn't have a Group 1 winning sire.

Rolling Star 7/2jf **** If you are finding holes, he's not from a Group 1 sire.

Somemthersdohavem 66/1 **** Not good enough, hasn't achieved a RP rating of at least 133.

Conclusions

A tough one to call, so I won't. I think only 4 horses can win, therefore I will just say that DIAKALA (14/1) is a value bet, against the 3 market leaders. All have basically run on soft ground or worse, but there isn't much else in the race that's good enough. 2 horses that had disappointing runs last time are Chris Pea Green (***) (40/1) and Swynmor (***) (25/1), they can improve at big prices.