JLT Speciality Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 3m 1/2f

last year's winner Alfie Sherrin in action

Overview

The first handicap of the festival and one where picking the winner is fairly easy. Well it is is if you don't dismiss it from your shortlist as I've done in the past. Time to find it this year. A race that usually suits un-exposed chasers, certainly you should be ignoring the good horses of the past.

10-year Trends

10/10 OR between 129-143.

10/10 Carried no more than 11-02 in weight.

10/10 Aged between 7 and 10 years old.

10/10 Won over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Finished in the top 3 last time.

8/10 Had run less than 11 times over fences.

Additionally

The last 14 winners were aged between 7 and 10.

The last 13 winners were official rated no more than 143.

No horse aged 11 or more has placed since 1997.

2 6 year olds have placed from 12 runners in the last 10 years.

Main Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars.

Our Mick 6/1f *** Favourite, 3^rd here last year but he's not won at 3m before and is a little high in the weights.

Nadiya De La Vega 16/1 *** Decent place money this season, but yet to win at the distance and is overlooked.

Knockara Beau 16/1 *** Only fails the minor trends, but should find one or two too good.

Merry King 8/1 *** Only 6 but fits the rest of the trends. Been backed into 8/1, can make the frame but I'll be leaving him out.

Fruity O'Rooney 9/1 ***** Frontrunner, who made the frame with my money last year. I expect him to do exactly the same, but he's a shorter price this year.

Pete The Feat 25/1 **** Raised 40lbs in the handicap this season after 5 consecutive wins. Looks like the handicapper has him now though. At 25/1 he's a nice price for the frame.

Lock Ba 12/1 ***** Another raised plenty this year (29lbs), but may be more to come. He passes all the trends and is a big player on that basis.

Monkerty Tunkerty 20/1 ***** Fits all the trends. I'm happy to have him onside at the price.

Summery Justice 40/1 **** Only ran 17 days ago in the Racing Plus Trophy (9^th). Gets 4 stars, but probably won't be good enough.

Conclusions

Our Mick looks the over-hyped horse of the day. I'm on Harwell Trophy winner LOCH BA (12/1) and possibly the 5^th MONKERTY TUNKERTY (20/1) (gets 7lbs pull for 11 length defeat). Fruity O'Rooney (9/1) will make the running, but isn't an each way price.