Betfred
Cheltenham Gold Cup – Grade 1 – 3m 21/2f
The late Synchronised wins last years renewal
Overview
What
a race in prospect, the new guard are here. The old guard, 8 year
old, Long Run faces 3 outstanding young things. There trends are very
strong, but all of the protagonists have holes in theirs.
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
raced between 2 and 5 times that season.
10/10 Had
a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt.
10/10 Were
aged between 6 and 9 years old.
9/10 Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win.
9/10 Had raced over fences between 6 and 12 times.
9/10 Had achieved an RPR of 171+ in their career.
9/10 Had an adjusted RPR of 175+ for this race.
9/10 Were
rated within 7lbs of the RPR top rated
8/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.
8/10 Had been placed at a previous festival
8/10 Had won last time out.
Additionally
21
of the last 22 winners had raced at least twice that season.
22
of the last 25 winners were top 4 last time
17
of the last 19 winners were aged 7 to 9.
The
last 13 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.
13
of the last 14 winners had won that season.
12
of the last 13 winners had an OR of 166 or more.
11
of the last 12 winners had finished top 2 last time.
12
of the last 15 winners were placed at a previous festival.
9
of the last 12 winners had finished top two at a festival
10
of the last 21 winners were second season chasers.
73
of the last 75 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [Kauto
Star and See More Business (c/o)
No
horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.
Only
1 horse has won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.
Contenders –
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.4
stars
Bobs
Worth
3/1f **** Looks
the most likely winner. I really don't like him with 1 run (Hennessy
Gold Cup in early December) as he missed a prep earlier, and he has
only 5 Chase starts. Loves the course and is 4 from 4 here.
Cape
Tribulation 16/1 ***
Improving every run,
stayed on great last time. Needs more, maybe next year. Place claims
if the favourites cut their own throats.
Captain
Chris 14/1 **** Does
he truly stay, does he like right-handed courses. That's why he's
14/1. The extra 2 1/2f
might well find him out.
Long
Run 5/1 ***** All
to prove, if he settles into a good jumping rhythm he can win. He's
still the best horse in this on the trends.
Monbeg
Dude 66/1 *** Welsh
National winner. That takes a lot out of you and I'd leave him alone
this season.
Silviniaco
Conti
5/1 ***** Called
a flat-track bully, and only has 1 run here (Hurdle 3rd).
That's the only small concern.
Sir
Des Champs
4/1 **** 2 wins round
here, but with First Lieutenant beaten yesterday, is his form any
good. Hasn't achieved a good enough RPR of 171 (169). No jockey at
the moment. AP McCoy is now available.
The
Giant Bolster
16/1 ** Lets be honest,
that was a fantastic run last year. I still don't think he can jump
or stay. Oh well. Plenty of fails. No Grade 1 win, no 3m win, RPR not
good enough. Sorry.
Wayward
Prince 100/1 *** Again,
no Grade 1 wins, RPR not good enough, blah blah.
Conclusions
I'm
going to stick my neck out and say SILVINIACO CONTI (5/1) and
BOB'S WORTH (3/1fav). Not original or big prices, just watch
and hope the Giant Bolster doesn't prove me wrong.
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