Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – Grade 1 – 2m 1/2f

Rock On Ruby beats off Overturn and Hurricane Fly in last year's race

Overview

The show-piece race of the opening day, and this one looks every inch a cracker. 3 former winners lining up, plus 2 potential stars. The trends are ok, Rock On Ruby busted a few last year (off the track for 78 days and with only 6 hurdles starts behind him plus a couple of minor ones), so we can't just rely on some of the weaker trends.

10-year Trends

10/10 Had won at the distance.

9/10 Had run within the last 51 days.

9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 164 or more.

8/10 Were aged between 6 and 8 years old.

8/10 Had between 10 and 25 Hurdle runs.

8/10 Had won a Grade 1 Hurdle or a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle.

8/10 Had run to a RPR of 162 or more previously.

8/10 Had achieved a Top Speed of 152 or more.

8/10 Were rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse.

Additionally

24 of the last 29 winners had won last time.

21 of the last 23 winners had won that season.

18 of the last 22 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.

17 of the last 21 winners had placed at a previous festival.

17 of the last 24 winners had won at Cheltenham.

The only 5-year-old to win since 1985 was Katchit in 2008.

Since 1951, only 3 winners were 9 or older.

No reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.

Since 1993, only 1 winner had not run in that calendar year.

Contenders – 10 years trends winner averaged 4.2 stars

Balder Succes 100/1 ** This looks a little hot for this 5 year old and is passed over as just not being good enough.

Binocular 9/1 ***** Winner in 2010, his trainer is bullish and he does pass all the trends, but he is a 9 year old now and I'd like to think there are better options.

Cinders And Ashes 12/1 ** Supreme Novices' winner last year. Turned over to a race-fit Countrywide Flame in his seasonal return and then 5^th to the ill-fated Darlan in the Christmas Hurdle. Off the track for 76 days, and needs to show a lot more to win this. Place chances at best.

Countrywide Flame 16/1 *** Triumph Hurdle winner last year. So is just a 5yo and I'd like to him next year. Held by Rock On Ruby last month.

Grandouet 8/1 **** Not seen the best of him as he's always injured. Just 1 run in the last 15 months and has been off for 87 days. Drifted on Betfair all week, but his trainer has rubbished reports that he's injured again. Talented, but he's short enough. Was 2^nd to Zarkandar (gave winner 4lbs for a 2 length defeat)

Hurricane Fly 2/1f ***** He won in 2011, but only 3^rd last year. Worthy favourite on what he's done in Ireland. Time isn't on his side (he's 9yo) and he couldn't catch Rock On Ruby last year. Hits all the other trends and has to be considered.

Khyber Kim 50/1 *** Decent horse on his day (2^nd to Binocular in 2010), but this 11yo won't be making the frame this time

Rock On Ruby 9/2 ***** Winner last year and probably didn't get the recognition he deserved. Would have been the bet on decent ground. Is the best fit trends-wise, and will be up there.

Zarkandar 7/2 ***** Won 7 of his 9 races (only blips were a fast finishing 5^th last year and a fall at Aintree). Tough as nails and has had a better preparation this year.

Conclusions

This looks between the 3 market leaders. Binocular is a 5 star, but only on previous exploits and is a little on the old side now. Hurricane Fly has the form in the book, but I want to look at the other 5 stars runners, Rock On Ruby is the champ and wasn't race fit when Zarkandar beat him earlier in the season. He is now, but Darlan had the beating of him when falling at Doncaster. ZARKANDAR (7/2) is my idea of the winner. There are too many doubts about Grandouet to bet. Each way, Countrywide Flame (16/1) has place possibities