Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 41/2f

Favourite Salut Flo caused a big upset on the trends last season.

Overview

Last years winner, Salut Flo, was bad trendswise, but big priced winners the norm in here. Lets find one.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won a Class 3 Chase.

10/10 Had won over at least 2m3f.

9/10 Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicaps.

9/10 Had less than 16 Chase starts.

8/10 Had run within the last 41 days.

8/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.

8/10 Carried less than 10-12.

Additionally

23 of the last 25 winners were rated less than 142.

18 of the last 21 winners had a top 4 finish last time out.

17 of the last 21 winners had raced at a previous festival.

11 of the last 12 winners were at double-figure odds.

Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951

Only 1 of the last 14 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the last 19 years.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars

Hunt Ball 8/1 ** Top weight. Owner is confident and he won with top weight last year. This is harder and I'll oppose him.

Shoegazer 33/1 **** High OR is his only failing, but 11-1 is fine and is a David Pipe horse.

Ballynagour 9/2f **** Could win this by 10 lengths if the handicapper has it wrong.

Mad Moose 33/1 **** Nothing really wrong with him trends wise.

Cantlow 7/1 **** Good horse, 66 days off is a worry though.

Giorgio Quercus 33/1 **** Again he's been off 104 days and I'll avoid him because of that.

Kapga De Cerisy 14/1 ***** Great on the trends, 1pt up on OR is not relevant. Only win at distance was in a small field on heavy, but this ground isn't a problem

Mister Hyde 66/1 ***** 1^st fence fall in the Racing Plus Trophy. Don't like that, but hits all other trends.

Divers 16/1 ***** Loves the course and 4^th last year, but disappointing this season. This does look perfect for a big run though. Worry is Ferdy Murphy is well out of sorts this season.

Conclusions

Ballynagour (9/2), could be a shoe-in, but I don't take that price in a 24 runner handicap. My 3 against the field at are the 2 5-stars. KAPGA DE CERISY (14/1) and DIVERS (16/1) and SHOEGAZER (33/1).