CGA Foxhunter Steeple Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders) – Class 2 - 3m 21/2f

 Chapoturgeon, Oscar Delta and Salsify battle out last year's race

Overview

The Amateur Rider's Gold Cup, the trends aren't strong, but there is an obvious favourite this year and he can follow up last years win.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.

9/10 Had achieved a rating of 130+ over fences.

9/10 Were aged between 6 and 10.

8/10 Had an adjusted RPR of at least 125.

7/10 Had run within the last 35 days. 12-35 in fact.

7/10 Won last time out.

Additionally

18 of the last 19 winners had won under rules.

20 of the last 22 winners were aged 10 or less.

22 of the last 27 winners had won last time.

21 of the last 24 winners started their career in Point to Points or Hunter Chases.

7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7-9 years old. [Baby Run 10yo]

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.0 stars

Backstage 16/1 **** Aged 11 now, and best years in the past, but passes the other trends.

Chapoturgeon 9/2 **** 2^nd last year, but still no win at 3 miles or more.

Cottage Oak 10/1 ***** Perfect. Big player here.

Creevytennant 28/1 ***** Perfect too, off for 40 days not a bother, but his win last month was his best and only scraped an RPR of 130.

Dante's Storm 20/1 **** He's an 11yo, but that's his only blemish.

Divine Intavention 40/1 ***** Fell last time against Salsify. I don't like horses that fall.

Earth Dream 40/1 ***** Doesn't look to have the class to win this (beaten 55 lengths by Salsify last time it ran under rules last summer) but perfect on the trends. Hmmm.

Galant Nuit 25/1 ***** Just point to points in the last few years. So no form to really go on.

Hoopy 40/1 **** His age is the main stumbling block and his wins haven't been at a good standard RPR-wise.

Louis Pasteur 150/1 **** Won a point to point a while ago and was pulled up last time. Not good enough really, but passes a lot of the trends.

Merchant Royal 66/1 **** Not in the race when pulling up last time in feb. Difficult to find a reason to support him.

Oscar Delta 33/1 **** 11^th in the feb race that Salsify won. 3rd last year. Needs to improve.

Radetsky March 28/1 ***** Wins or pulls up. Wins in much lower classes, pulls up in bigger races. Adjusted RPR isn't good enough.

Salsify 11/4f ***** Short price, but last years winner and perfect on the trends.

That's Rhythm 18/1 **** 2^nd to Salsify, made a few mistakes too. He's 13 is now Earthmover. Place claims.

Tricky Trickster 12/1 ***** Classy horse. Grade 2 winner in 2010. Decent chance if he wants it.

What A Laugh 33/1 **** Not reeally good enough to get involved.

Conclusions

With the trends so weak, it' will probably pay to stick at the top of the market. SALSIFY (11/4fav) is the obvious pick. He too short to back (for me). Each way picks are TRICKY TRICKSTER (12/1) and DANTE'S STORM (20/1). Cottage Oak is best price 10/1, a little short but I won't put you off. 4 places paid at bet365.com (and lesser bookmakers).