RSA
Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 1/2f
Bobs Worth beats First Leiutenant
Overview
A
very strong trends race, featuring future Gold Cup types.
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Were
horses bred for National Hunt racing.
10/10 Had
finished in the top 2 last time.
10/10 Had
run within the last 53 days.
10/10 Had
finished top 3 in a Graded Chase.
10/10 Had
an adjusted RPR of at least 153.
10/10 Were
rated to within 15lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
9/10 Had started between 3 and 5 Chases.
9/10 Were aged either 7 or 8 years old.
9/10 Had achieved a previous RPR rating of at least 150
in their career.
Additionally
48
of the last 48 winners had run that year.
24
of the last 25 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
18
of the last 19 winners had started at least 3 chases.
17
of the last 20 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.
11
of the last 13 winners were aged 7.
No
horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].
Only
2 6-year olds have won since 1978 [Young Hustler (1993) and Florida
Pearl (1998)].
Only
1 5-year old has won since 1950 [Star de Mohaison in 2006].
No
ex-flat horse has placed since 1994.
Contenders
– 10
year trends winner
averaged 4.9
stars
Boston
Bob 5/1 **** 2nd in the Neptune to the ill-fated
Brindisi Breeze, a little inexperienced for this, but stays all day.
If you are backing him, he'll be much bigger in-running and I've
nagging doubts about him
Goulanes 15/2 *** Won
on debut, I want more experience before he carries my money.
Hadrian's
Aprroach 6/1 *** beaten by Unioniste at Newbury in Feb.
A 6yo might find a couple too good.
Houblon
Des Obeaux 11/1 **** Another 6yo, but looks stronger than
Hadrian's Approach, just
beaten by the good Rocky Creek (misses Cheltenham).
Possible e/w chance
Lord
Windermere 10/1 **** Done on the line by Boston Bob in
a 4 horse blanket finish, so
his 3rd
isn't a problem for me. I think he'll make the frame.
Lyreen
Legend 12/1 *** The 4th horse in that finish. A
point off for being a 6yo. Again he's a big price considering Boston
Bob is 4/1 or so.
Real
Milan 33/1 * No chance on all known form
Terminal 20/1 ** Inexperience
6yo, who doesn't look good enough and doesn't finish enough races.
Theatrical
Star 66/1 ** Not really gonna be good enough, but 100/1 is a big
price.
Vintage
Star 66/1 ** Doesn't win Class 4 races, so best to avoid.
Unioniste
7/2f ***** 5 year olds don't have a great record, however this
doesn't look like any ordinary 5yo. Doesn't get the 10lb pull at the
weights that Star de Mohaison did in 2006, but he looks a strong bet
here.
Contenders:
Unioniste fits the trends the best, but is only
5. I'm probably going to look for a bit of value. HOUBLON DES
OBEAUX (11/1) and LORD WINDERMERE (10/1).
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