Ryanair Festival Trophy Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

Riverside Theatre (left) closes down twice winner Albertas Run over the last

Overview:

Only been going for 8 years and is the intermediate jumping race. We have the last 2 winners back again. This is going to be close, very close although probably not as close as last year.

8-Year Trends

8/8 Had achieved a RPR of 158 or more.

8/8 OR of 152 or more.

8/8 Aged 10 or younger.

8/8 Had finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.

7/8 Were top 3 in the market.

7/8 Had less than 5 runs since October.

Additionally

7 of the 8 winners had won at Cheltenham before. 6 runners-up had too.

7 of the 8 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.

4 of the 5 winners since an upgrade to Grade 1 in 2008 had already won a Grade 1 Chase.

4 of the 5 winners since the upgrade had run in the King George VI Chase.

4 of the 5 winners since the upgrade were rated 162+ on official ratings.

4 of the 5 winners since the upgrade were rated 171+ by the Racing Post.

4 of the 5 winners since the upgrade were rated within 3lbs of the RPR top rated.

Contenders – 8 year trends winner averaged 3.8 stars

Albertas Run 12/1 **** Twice winner and placed last year. Off the track for 11 months, and is now 12.

Champion Court 15/2 **** Good this year, slightly inexperienced.

Cue Card 4/1 **** Good horse, and this is his trip. Inexperienced compared to most winners.

First Lieutentant 5/2f ***** He's the only perfect trends horse, but hasn't won for ages.

For Non Stop 16/1 *** Started the season well, but lost his way on bad ground. Can bounce back for this. Only horse in the field without a win at Cheltenham.

Ghizao 33/1 **** Could get in the frame at a price. Finished 3^rd in his last 2 starts.

Menorah 8/1 **** Similarly inexperienced, but has a decent chanc. Jumping has improved this season, but more required.

Riverside Theatre 13/2 **** Last years champ. How he won, nobody knows, but he did. P/U and 6^th in King George in his last 2 stars.

Conclusions:

Difficult to call. Each-way picks Albertas Run (12/1) and For Non Stop (16/1) are an option, but I'm still going to say CUE CARD (4/1) as my pick. First Lieutenant is a strong contender, but 5/2 is plenty short enough.