Vincent
O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 2m 1f
Alderwood (running today in the Grand Annual) takes the County Hurdle.
Overview
Tough
handicap (of course). Plenty of big priced winners recently. But some
strong trends to use as well.
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
achieved a RPR of 129 or more on a Left-Handed course.
10/10 Had
between 4 and 16 hurdle races.
10/10 Had
finished in the top 4 in either of their last 2 starts.
10/10 Had
at least 4 runs in the season.
9/10 Had carried less than 11-02.
9/10 Were rated between 128 and 140 by the handicapper.
8/10 Had raced within the last 36 days. [Thousand Stars
(55), Final Approach (68) – both Mullins trained]
Additionally
17
of the last 19 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.
16
of the last 19 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.
Contenders –
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.2
stars
Hisaabaat 25/1 **** 61
days off and a bit highly rated for a 5yo. Ran superbly over the new
course in the Triumph last year though.
Edgardo
Sol 25/1 **** High
in the weights (Harry Derham takes off 5lbs). Does have an each way
chance with a very good course record, 132. Paul Nicholls is having a
poor festival.
Clerk's
Choice 66/1 **** Had a strange season. Mainly avoiding the heavy ground, so any rain will be a worry. There are better horses out there.
Tennis
Cap 14/1 **** Beat
Discoteca
last time. Slightly high in the ratings, but not a worry.
Tanerko
Emery 16/1 **** Great
run 6 days ago. Not sure I want a horse that's run so soon but is
trained by David Pipe so you never know.
Discoteca 25/1 ***** Gets
a good pull at the weights with a claimer on board after a 2nd
to Tennis Cap.
Princeton
Plains 14/1 **** Pricewise.
6Th
and 8th
last 2 starts. All 10 winners had a top 4 finish in those races.
7yo's have a record of 1 win from 66 (12 places). Chances, but
others better at this, now, shorter price.
Shadow
Catcher 25/1 **** No
form at all.
Dan
Breen 28/1 **** 8yo,
(Alderwood won last year), I'd be worried that
It's
A Gimme 20/1 **** Not
seen for 83 days, that's a worry.
Abbey
Lane 28/1 ***** Assumed
non-runner, as he was unplaced on Wednesday.
Ifandbutwhynot 11/1 ***** Pretty
good in the trends. Has a good chance, any ground is fine. Aged 7 if
you want to oppose him.
Manyriverstocross 40/1 **** 8yo
with only 1 run in 2 ½ years (10th
in the Betfair Hurdle last month)
Claret
Cloak 20/1 **** Every
winner has a decent rating Left-Handed. He has not, so is
over-looked.
Ted
Veale 12/1 ***** All
his form is on soft and heavy, but otherwise is pretty good in the
trends. Bit short for a soft ground horse.
Kian's
Delight 33/1 **** Another
that hasn't achieved much Left-Handed. So not for me.
Kings
Lad 33/1 ***** Consistent,
but pulled up, tailed off, just 6 days ago. Tough to fancy him unless
its part of a Tizzard coup.
Conclusions
Cotton
Mill (8/1fav) is just too high
in the weights for me. I'm on DISCOTECA
(25/1). He's got the perfect profile (nearly) and some decent form in
the book. IFANANDBUTWHYNOT (12/1,
Boylesports), would
be a bet for me if I could get on there. Princetown Plains
(14/1) is pricewise and too short for me to bet but is an option.
Edgardo Sol (25/1) has
excellent course form, but Paul Nicholls isn't renown for his
handicap coups.
No comments:
Post a Comment