OLBG (David Nicholson) Mares Hurdle – Grade 2 – 2m 4f

Can Quevega make it 5 wins in a row?

Overview

One of the new races when the festival expanded 5 years ago. There are no trends to speak of, its just whether Quevega can match Golden Miller's record of 5 consecutive festival wins in the same race.

5-year 'Trends'

5/5 Aged between 5 and 8 years old. Rule out any horse apart from Quevega, who is 9.

5/5 Race between 5 and 12 times over Hurdles. Rule out any horse apart from Quevega.

4/5 Won over 2m4f or more. Rule out any horse apart from Quevega

4/5 Best RPR of at least 142. Rule out any horse apart from Quevega

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Contenders

Quevega 4/6f ***** Best horse in the race and could easily win the World Hurdle.

If the trends aren't yet developed, then we have to find a reason to rule out horses.

Exposed horses, more than 14 races:

Inexperienced horses with less than 5 starts:

Yet to win over the distance or more.

Hadn't achieved a RPR rating of at least 142.

Hadn't currently got an adjusted RPR of 156 or more for the season.

Only 1 other horse have avoided the cull and thus have 5 stars.

Kentford Grey Lady 10/1 ***** 2^nd in this last year. Won't beat Quevega, but should be in the frame. 3^rd in the Cleeve Hurdle, so stamina is in abundance if the ground is too testing.

Also:

Une Artiste 11/2 **** Won the Fred Winter at the festival at 40/1 and looks to be stepped up to 2 ½ miles after winning at Sandown over that distance. Only 5 and could be the new queen, when Quevega abdicates.

Conclusions

I wouldn't rule out anything from making the frame. Only Stone Light and Swing Bowler had 1 stars and Swing Bowler (20/1 → 8/1) is an up and coming improver who could easily run well. One that could run well at a bigger price is SHE RANKS ME (33/1) but it may be worth waiting for the w/o Quevega markets to form first. Oh QUEVEGA to win if I hadn't already mentioned her.