Just going to put up the results and what I'd rated each one. To be honest there are only 5-6 1* and 2*s in some races and there are plenty of 4* and 5* in the field, but we can at least remove some of those no hopers from our thoughts.
Champagne Fever (5/1) ***** (no of 5*:4 4*:1 3*:2 2*:1 1*: 3) written as (4/1/2/1/3)
The first 2 were 5 stars (from 4 horses, 3rd was the 4 star)
Simonsig (8/15fav) ***** (2/1/0/0/4)
Obvious pick, lets move on.
Golden Chieftain (28/1) *** (3/2/11/6/2)
A 3* horse wins, but only 5 horses rated bigger. All 4 in the frame were 3*, with 4* Fruity O'Rooney 5th.
Hurricane Fly (13/8fav) ***** (4/1/2/2/0)
Great race and no surprises in behind. 3* Countrywide Flame ran a great race for a 5yo.
Quevega (8/11fav) ***** (2/1/11/3/2)
Easy to pick her out. the runners up were both 3*
Rajdhani Express (16/1) ** (0/2/5/10/3)
I did have a double-take here, but there was a stand out e/w bet which was 3rd. Only 8 runnings meant there was no 5* pick. 1* Ackertac (2nd) caused a shock as I though he had no chance whatsoever.
Only 15 5 stars on the day and 4 winners (from 5 races, no 5* in the last) Would have been Big Shu as well if the Cross Country was run today.
Back In Focus (9/4fav) ***** (5/4/3/2/2)
1st and 3rd were top-rated. Tofino Bay (2nd) was just rated 3*.
The New One (7/2) **** (4/1/2/1/1)
I did mention that I considered him a 5* horse in all but name, but he wasn't so he isn't. 2 5* in the frame.
Lord Windermere (8/1) **** (1/3/3/3/1)
The 5* was 5yo Unioniste, a weak 5* in my opinion. He was opposable at the price and we found the winner as a 4*. the others in the money were 3*s.
Sprinter Sacre (1/4fav) ***** (2/3/0/2/0)
A 5 star forecast.
Medinas (33/1) **** (6/10/2/4/4)
A tough old handicap and you could have had 16 decent horses to pick the winner from. We didn't, the winner did superbly carrrying a big weight and a big price. We had a 5* e/w 4th. with a 2* and 1* also making the frame. Those 4 all came form the top 11 in the handicap. Maybe time to rethink that trend in the future for this race.
Flaxen Flare (25/1) *** (0/10/11/3/0)
Missed this one. Only 8 years of trends and the first without a Group 1 winning sire and a flat rating less than 85. No 5*s and no 1*s, so a very tight renewal.
We had Caid Du Berlais (a 3 star) who was stronger than that imho and he was the runner up. 3rd and 4th were a 4* and 3*.
Briar Hill (25/1) *** (2/6/9/3/3)
A 25/1 winner by Mullins and Walsh... how did that one slip through the net. 5* Golantilla was 3rd.
Regal Encore (4*) was runner up.
A mixed bag today. The toughest day in my opinion. 2 5* winners and 3 4*s.
Beneficient (20/1) **** (2/3/3/3/2)
With Dynaste too short and my doubts about Captain Conan staying, we found Beneficient who was just too big in a race with no trends to speak of after just 2 runnings. Those trends can only get stonger for next year. Changing Times (2*) ran on well for 3rd.
Holywell (25/1) **** (5/10/7/1/1)
The trends didn't get rid of too many and there were still 15 horses to consider. Holywell was ignored as he hasn't won at anything near this class before. We opposed Sam Winner (4*), who hadn't won over anything like this trip. We picked up a 5* 2nd. A 4* and 3* made up the rest.
Cue Card (7/2) **** (1/6/1/0/0)
First Lieutenant was the 5*, I didn't fancy him as he hadn't won for 'ages'. We went for Cue Card and it paid off. I actually went for Fon Non Stop (the 3 star) as he would love the ground and was a silly price in a hot renewal.
Solwhit (17/2) **** (3/2/3/2/3)
I didn't actually put this one up (forgot to publish). Luckily enough!!
Solwhit hadn't proven himself over 3m, so was just off the radar. Celestial Halo (2*) and Smad Place (3*) made it not a great race for me.
Carrickboy (50/1) *** (3/5/10/3/2)
These handicaps are tough... 3* Carrrickboy, a good horse in his day, did the business. He was a little exposed for me and wasn't considered. Our picks were pretty disappointing. The frame was made up of a 3/3/2*'s meant it was back to the drawing board.
Same Difference (16/1) ***** (7/11/4/1/1)
I put him in the write up, but didn't suggest a bet per se, but I had to back him 5 mins before the start. I'm glad I did. Everything passed the trends by the looks of it. 4* Super Duty ran well in 2nd off a big weight.
Alfie Sherrin (5*) and Romanesco (3*) made up the places. The trends held up well, but we did have most of the field, lets move on.
Big Shu (14/1) ***** (1/5/3/4/3)
The stand-out trends pick at 14/1.. The RP trends picked Arabella Boy!!
A great day, probably my best yet. The trends held up well, but they are only a guide. If we dip under the surface and delve a little more we can find winners at big prices.
Our Conor (4/1) **** (2/4/3/4/4)
Only a 4* horse, but had form on the newly softened ground. Our e/w pick was matched on form and finished 4th (Stan James paid 4 places). The runner-up Far West was a 5* pick. 2* Sametegal ran on for 3rd. He wasn't the big priced 3rd I had hoped.
Ted Veale (10/1) ***** (5/11/9/3/0)
Didn't back him, but said he'd win if the rain came. Then I forgot I'd said it and my horses came nowhere.
Again the handicap had a lot of trends matched. The placed horses were 4/4/4 stars, but that is not suprising.
At Fishers Cross (11/8fav) ***** (3/0/0/2/8)
Obvious pick, especially when the rain came. 5* Inish Island was 3rd but with the non-runners was no each way price in the end. Our Vinny fell. The trends were excellent here ruling out the no-hopers. African Gold was a 2*.
Bobs Worth (11/4fav) **** (2/3/3/1/0)
There were holes in everyone's trends. Some stronger than others. We went for Bobs Worth even with only 1 seasonal run, just 5 Chases and a missed prep run. We were right and after looking beat, he stayed on really well and looks special. He now as won all 5 of his Cheltenham races. 5* Silviniaco Conti fell when going well. 5* Long Run was 3rd and looks like he won't be beating Bobs Worth again. 4* Sir Des Champs ran well and the trends were pretty good here.
Salsify (2/1fav) ***** (8/9/3/3/0)
A lucky winner. Last years 3rd Oscar Delta (4*) would have won 999 out of 1000 of those over the last. A hard race to rule many out of. My pick ran ok but blew up a few out. Class horses are the way forward here methinks. Chapoturgeon still hasn't won a 3m race, and is still going to be opposed. All 3 places were occupied by 5-star horses.
Salubrious (16/1) **** (6/6/6/5/1)
Only 4 renewals, so trends are untrustworthy. Salubrious (4*) was a little high in the weights for me, but still a good winner. Places were made up of 2/4/5 stars. The money came for Make Your Mark who was the 5 star place. 14/1 -> 8/1. Another year and we can strengthen the limited trends.
Alderwood (3/1fav) ***** (4/7/12/1/0)
6/1 at the start of the day, this previous festival winner was the likeliest non-Henderson winner. We didn't get into the frame with the picks but did suggest 2nd placed Kid Cassidy (12/1 in the end was 9/1). The places contained 3 3* horses, so we could have done better.
No big winners on the last day personally, but you could have got a few favs in.
By my calculations we had the following split of ratings
***** 87 runners, 12 winners (13.79%)
**** 128 runners, 10 winners (7.81%)
*** 128 runners, 4 winners (3.13%)
** 73 runners, 1 winner (1.37%) - race had only 8 years of trends as well
* 50 runners, 0 winners (0%)
Happy with that. Don't rely just on trends, but they are are useful tool to rule out no-hopers and take on false favourites.
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