Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) – Grade 3 – 2m 5f

Son Of Flicka was the result of last year's biggest gamble

Overview

The best handicap hurdle at the festival, but very tough to pick the winner, Son Of Flicka sparked a massive gamble to win a 16/1 (was 66/1 in a place in the morning). He broke a few of the trends for this so we have to be a little careful in not ruling the winner out.

10-Year Trends

9/10 Had won between 2m2f and 2m6f .

9/10 Had won at least in a Class 3 hurdle.

9/10 Carried less than 11-03 in weight.

9/10 Had a break of at least 32 days from the racetrack.

9/10 Had won earlier in the season.

9/10 Were officially rated between 128-144.

8/10 Were aged between 5 and 7 years old.

8/10 Had some sort of form and a top 6 finish last time out.

Additionally

11 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11-03.

10 of the last 12 winners had won no more than one handicap.

14 of the last 19 winners had won that season.

The last 19 winners were all officially rated less than 148.

No horse aged older than 9 has placed since 1999.

Main Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.4 stars

Un Beau Matin 16/1 ***** Has the beating of Owega Star, when he can stand up. I don't want to be backing fallers in this hot heat.

Master Of The Sea 16/1 ***** Not exactly hiding from the handicapper with 3 wins on the bounce. More seasonal runs than your average winner but has an each way chance.

Owega Star 33/1 ***** Likely to be taken off his feet in this as he' only run in small fields. 10 Hurdles (instead of 9) is his only 'blemish' and is forgiven that.

Abbey Lane 8/1 ***** Mullins and Walsh will shorten the price. 8 years old's aren't in the right age range and I'll take him on.

Ericht 16/1 ***** Hasn't won a C3 hurdle yet (Grade 3 Bumper winner), but hits all other trends and is in good form.

Buck Magic 25/1 ***** Has a penalty for a win 11 days ago. I don't like these types, but does fit all the other trends

Medinas 22/1 **** Big high in the weights, which suggests he's not been laid out for this.

Loose Chips 50/1 **** Pulled-up in the Lanzarote Hurdle. But in good form before that. Bit high in the weights for a horse with little experience of Graded racing. Could make the frame at a price.

Mr Watson 16/1 **** This is the sort who could win this, but hasn't won at more than 2m1f, so isn't going to be reliable.

Barbatos 20/1 **** One run this season (well behind Mr Watson), so a chance would be taken on him, but useful novice last season.

Big Easy 50/1 **** Off the track for 95 days. That is a big negative for me.

Urbain De Sivola 33/1 **** Fits most of the trends, but out of form and off the track for 3 months.

Timesawastin  50/1 **** Off the track for 3 months is a worry, 1st-time headgear may spark him back to life.

Wyse Hill Tea Bags 40/1 **** Off the track for 6 months. And an 8yo. So won't be winning this.

Saphir River 50/1 **** Looks outclassed in this, but only fails are winning at Class 3

Orsippius 40/1 **** Juvenile winner of a Grade 1 at Aintree a few years ago, don't discount at a big price, he is out of form, but only 5l third behind Peddlers Cross LTO.

Conclusions:

Plenty of horse are strong in the trends. So finding the winner is going to be very hard. Tentative bets for MASTER OF THE SEA (16/1) and BARBATOS (20/1). Abbey Lane (8/1jf). will be popular and I won't talk you out of backing him. Young Novice Pendra (8/1jf) is an up and coming horse, but is unproven at the distance and hasn't won at Class 3 or above.