John Oaksey National Hunt Novices' Chase (Amateur Riders') – Class 2 – 4m

 Teaforthree, last years winner

Overview

This is now attracting good quality novices, priming themselves for a crack at the nationals in the next couple of years. The last 2 winners being Chicago Grey and Teaforthree. Both of these were rated significantly higher than older winners. Obviously being a 4 mile race, you need to have stamina in abundance, and a good amateur jockey on board.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced over fences at least 3 times.

10/10 Were aged between 6 and 8 years old.

9/10 Had finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 3 miles.

9/10 Had won over at least 3 miles in any sphere.

9/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.

9/10 Had achieved a hurdles rating of 119 in their career.

8/10 Had been off the track for at least 29 days.

8/10 Had finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts.

Additionally

8 of the last 11 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.

Since 1989, only one 5 or 6 year old has won the race (Tricky Trickster in 2009)

Horses older than 8 are 0-3-39 (3 places by 9yo) in the last 10 years.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars

Back In Focus 3/1f ***** Deserves his chance and he's perfect trendswise. Won't have Ruby on today. (5/1 → 3/1)

Buddy Bolero 9/2 **** Inexperience is his only flaw, maybe next year. (6/1 → 9/2)

Drawn N Drank 50/1 **** Stamina doubts, but hits all the other trends.

Emperor's Choice 20/1 *** Ran only 2 weeks ago, and wasn't a good hurdler. Winning form over 3m2f+ means you can't rule him out. (33/1 → 20/1)

Godsmejudge 7/1 ***** In form and hits every trend. A big player. (10/1 → 7/1)

Hawkes Point 11/1 ***** Another perfect horse. Fairly inexperienced and seems to excel in small fields so far. (16/1->11/1)

Heathyards Flyer 150/1 * No chance.

Highland Lodge 25/1 **** Well behind Hawkes Point last time, and unlikely to turn that around here.

Our Island 50/1 **** Hits all the trends, but isn't in winning form, He's 0 from 4 at 3m6f or more.

Present To You 150/1 *** Wasn't a great hurdler, outclassed.

Rival D'Estruval 6/1 ***** Been running is decent chases. Perfect trendswise.

Rose Of The Moon 33/1 ***** Just 3 chases, but another trends perfect. Only run in small fields a worry and has been Pricewised, (33/1 → 14/1)

Sacred Mountain 200/1 ** 12yo, no real chance

Scampi Boy 100/1 * No chance

Tofino Bay 9/1 *** His age is a problem. Big fields not so, but well behind Back In Focus this season. (16/1 → 9/1)

Top Smart 50/1 ** Not so smart this far.

Conclusions

BACK IN FOCUS (3/1fav) looks a strong favourite and is the only Grade 1 Chase winner in the field. The trends are a little weak in areas and I don't want to rule out a horse because he finished 3^rd by a nose last time. I don't think we'll be getting a big priced winner and the only one backable at an e/w price is pricewise's ROSE OF THE MOON (14/1 from 33/1). Hawkes Point (11/1) Rival D'Estruval (6/1) and Godmejudge (7/1) are the other 5 star horses and should be there or there abouts at the end.