Jewson (Golden Miller) Novices' Chase – Grade 2 – 2m 4f

Sire Des Champs

Overview

Limited trends after only 2 runnings, but there are some things Noble Prince and Sir Des Champs had in common that we can use. Dynaste is the hot favourite. The bookies want him beat.

2-Year Traits

Both winners had:-

Won at least a Grade 2 Chase

Won over at least 2m4f.

Achieved a RPR of 151 or more.

Aged 6 or 7.

Had at least 3 Chase runs

Were Top 2 in all their Chase runs.

Had achieved a season win.

Additionally

6 of the 8 top 4 finishers had run well at Cheltenham.

Contenders

Aupcharlie 7/1 **** Big chance from Ireland. But I'm sure he should have been running in the RSA Chase. On Good-to Soft, this trip may be on the short side.

Beneficient 22/1 **** Fortunate winner last time, but he's a Grade 1 winner (at 50/1) over the sticks. He's a big price. First time headgear today.

Captain Conan 7/1 ***** Personally, his win at 2m4f last time was fortunate and I think he's here to avoid Simonsig in the Arkle. I don't think this is his trip, so he's a weak 5-star horse in my opinion.

Dynaste 13/8f ***** The favourite and one the bookies want to take on. Done nothing wrong and he should be there and there abouts.

Sire Collonges 33/1 **** Outside who fits the limited analysis available. Off the track for 117 days, which is never a positive.

Texas Jack 10/1 *** A mention for Texas Jack as he was the horse in the blanket finish with Boston Bob, Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend, who would have been the top 3 in the RSA yesterday without BB's fall. Money for him today and we'll see if yesterday's staying novices were any good.

Conclusions:

If you don't fancy Dynaste (13/8fav), then you have to find the winner. I have doubts on Captain Conan and Aupcharlie who should be in different races. So I think the favourite has a great chance at a poor price. Don't rule out Texas Jack (10/1). If he's 12/1 or bigger, I'll be on each-way. My actual selection is BENEFICIENT (22/1, betvictor, stanjames), who will actually want this trip (he could have easily picked up place money in the Arkle)