Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 1/2f

The 3rd winner from last friday's festival who isn't with us any more, Bellvano (left)

Overview

This may end up turning into the Nicky Henderson benefit in the race named after his father. Last year he had the winner and 2 places (if I recall). He kept French Opera as top weight in the race to keep his at the bottom/middle of the handicap. Same again this year. He runs 3 at the top. His 3 lower down are Kid Cassidy, Tetlami and Anquetta. Keep an eye out for those.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won over 2 miles 1 furlong.

9/10 Had raced less than 13 times over fences.

9/10 Carried less than 10-11.

9/10 Were aged between 5 and 9 years old.

8/10 Were officially rated between 129 and 138.

8/10 Had raced at a previous festival.

Additionally

13 of the last 14 winners had raced less than 13 times over fences.

12 of the last 13 winners were aged 10 or more.

9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 129 and 134.

Only 1 winner had been off the course for 46 days or more since 1990

No winner rated over 145 since 1992.

Main Contenders– 10 year trends winner averaged 3.8 stars

Tetlami 18/1 *****Ok form. Nothing great in big fields, but he's a Henderson horse and has to be respected. Trendwise he's pretty perfect.

 

Alderwood 11/2f ***** Won the County Hurdle last year. Worthy favourite and I expect him to be there or there abouts. 

Anquetta 18/1 ***** Mainly perfect on the trends. Placed in this last year and a Nicky Henderson runner.

Gus Macrae 50/1 ***** Always gives his all, but does hit a flat spot in running. You will get a run for your money.

Conclusions

Alderwood (11/2fav) looks a decent favourite, and may give Tony McCoy his only winner at the festival. One for the placepot. The 2 Henderson horses that are 5 stars are worth a second look. ANQUETTA (18/1) was 4^th last year and must have a serious chance in this. TETLAMI (18/1) is his other runner with a good profile. Gus MacRae (50/1) won't let you down at a big price. As for Kid Cassidy (9/1), I don't want a horse off for 4 months, so he is ignored (at my peril probably).

 

Its been a pleasure to write all this, I wish I had the time to do more. Hopefully I can do Aintree as well. We had a great day yesterday let's not give it back today.