Weatherbys
Champion Bumper – Grade 1 – 2m 1/2f
Champagne Fever wins the Supreme Novices yesterday, after taking last years Bumper
10-Year
Trends
9/10 Had
won a bumper with 13 or more runners. [Champagne Fever (9r, 2nd
in 13r)]
9/10 Were
aged 5 or 6. [Cue Card was 4]
9/10 Won
last time. [Liberman was 2nd]
9/10 Had
achieved a RPR of 118 or more. (Exceptions had won their only start).
8/10 Had
won a bumper worth at least £4,000. (Exceptions had won their only
start)
8/10 Hadn't
raced for at least 33 days. [Hairy Molly (17) and Cousin Vinny (22)]
Additionally
18
of the 20 winners had won last time out.
16
of the 20 winners were Irish-bred.
15
of the 20 winners were trained in Ireland.
14
of the 20 winners were from the first 6 in the market.
14
of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Contenders –
10 year trends
winner averaged 3.9
stars
Blackmail 12/1 **** Tony
Martin's 2nd
string. Each-way chance.
Drumlee 28/1 **** Once
raced. Could be anything. Don't rule out.
Golantilla 10/1 ***** Drifting
in the market, but one of only 2 that is perfect on the trends.
Milo
Man 20/1 **** No win in a big
field puts doubts in my mind.
Regal
Encore 9/1 **** The slight
doubt is his lack of win in a big field or decent bumper.
Sizing
Tennessee 20/1 **** Another
who's wins are in small fields
Union
Dues 9/1 ***** Fits all the
trends and judging by the market, could be the winner.
Le
Vent D'Antan 8/1f **** The best 4yo here. Short in the market,
but I can't put you off if you fancy it.
Conclusions:
Very open race as you can see. Win bets on GOLANTILLA
(10/1) and UNION DUES (9/1) are an options. I can't be
confident about too much. Hoping for a £600 exacta on Cue Card and
Al Ferof is too much to hope for. Stick to any of the 8 for a chance.
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