Glenfarclas
Cross Country Handicap Chase – Class 2 – 3m 7
Balthazar's King (left) misses this year's renewal
Overview
Not a race to
get too involved with, the form is pretty honest. I managed to get A
New Story when he was old. He's now really old at 15 and shouldn't really be
racing any more. I hope he gets round ok after 2 horses died in last
years race. Back to this years race. The last 2 winners have killed
off a few of the notions about what the winner looks like. Younger
horses could be the way forward and we will find out more this year.
8-year Trends
7/8 Irish
Trained.
7/8 Placed in a
Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross Country Chase.
7/8 Had won over
3 miles or more.
7/8 Were
officially rated between 126 and 143.
6/8 Had raced
withing the last 37 days.
6/8 Carried less
than 11 stone.
6/8 Had run in
less than 18 Chases.
6/8 Won 1 of
their last 2 starts.
Additionally
Of the 16 races
on the course, 14 have been won by horses from the first 3 in the
betting.
Irish-trained
horses have filled 34 of the 40 places up for grabs.
Contenders
– average winner 3.8
stars
Trends are weak in the 8 runnings. Its
probably better to rule out horses that are unfit, haven't won at
more than 3 miles and haven't placed in similar races.
Out go: Passato, Wedger Pardy,
Sacree Tiepy. Shakervilz, Any Currency
and Saddlers Storm
Vulnerable:
Uncle Junior (12yo giving 10lbs+
to the rest)
A New Story (15yo is not a
positive)
Double Dizzy (backed him before,
should find a few too many at the sharp end of the race)
Freneys Well (13yo who finished
down the field 2 years ago)
Leac An Scail (12yo, but
nothing else is a negative)
Best of the rest:
Outlaw Pete 11/2 **** Winner of the
December event, should give his backers a good run.
Bostons Angel 9/1 *** Renewed
enthusiasm over these courses and ground will suit. Only 6th
in the PP Hogan Chase last in February after good Cheltenham showing
behind Outlaw Pete.
Sizing Australia 14/1 **** Winner in
2011. Not won a Chase on worse than good.
Arabella Boy 4/1f **** Favourite,
won in the PP Hogan, but not too hot in the Cheltenham race in
December (fell while behind)
Big Shu 12/1 ***** 2nd to
Arabella Boy in the PP Hogan. Possible each-way selection if taking
to the course.
Conclusions
Small stakes advised. I don't really want to commit to anything at
this stage. Possible each-way on BIG SHU (12/1).
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