Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase – Grade 1 - 2m

Last years champion, Finian's Rainbow, misses this years race

Overview

This looks like the Sprinter Sacre roadshow, and he's already scared off the opposition with the race seeing the lowest amount of entries for many a year.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won over extended 2m 1f trip.

10/10 Had at least 7 Chase starts.

10/10 Had run no more than 4 times in the season.

9/10 Were younger than 11.

9/10 Had achieved a RPR of at least 166.

8/10 Had won a Grade 1 Chase.

8/10 Were rated within 10lbs of the RPR top rated.

Additionally

27 of the last 29 winners had won over 2m2f or more, or were C&D winners.

27 of the last 31 winners won at a single figure price.

21 of the last 28 winners were placed at a previous festival.

13 of the last 20 winners had won at a previous festival. (18 of last 28)

11 of the last 14 winners were 5/1 or shorter.

The last 13 winners of the Arkle to run in the following year's Champion Chase all placed.

Only 1 winner aged greater than 10 since 1977. [Moscow Flyer in 2005]

None of the last 16 wiiners had run more than 4 times that season.

11 of the last 12 champions were beaten. [Only Master Minded retained his title]

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.1 stars

Mail De Bievre 20/1 ** Good run after an age off over a tough 3m. Supplemented for this, passed the main trends, and fails the minors due to mainly being in Frrance, better than your average 2 star

Sanctuaire 28/1 **** Put in his place by Sprinter Sacre, another year and he might win.

Sizing Europe 6/1 ***** Champion 2 years ago, should make it a great race, but he's 11 now.

Somersby 40/1 **** Former Grade 1 winner, but beaten by Sprinter Scare this year.

Sprinter Sacre 4/11f ***** Winner as long as he gets round, which he should.

Tataniano 200/1 ** Once a star novice, but lost his way since, one of the best 200/1 shots in racing history.

Wishful Thinking 28/1 **** Could be anything on his day and if he jumps well. Well beaten by Sanctuaire in December.

Conclusions:

In a race where Somersby is 40/1 and Tataniano is 200/1, this has to be seriously hot. As there's only 7 runners, I won't be spending much time on this. Sprinter Sacre to beat Sizing Europe is what should happen. I have £10 at Corals at evens, so I'm happy with that.