Neptune Investment Management (Baring Bingham) Novices' Hurdle 

Grade 1 – 2m 5f

Simonsig hoses up in last years renewal

 

Overview

The middle-distance novices' hurdle, where the favourites usually prevail, generally because you can see them a mile off throughout the season, although Irish horses are often ignored.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were aged either 5 or 6.

9/10 Had achieved a Best RPR of 145 or better.

9/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.

9/10 Had not run at a previous festival, (ie last years bumper).

9/10 Had at least 2 runs over the sticks.

9/10 Had won, or at least, placed in a Graded Hurdle.

9/10 Had finished in the top 2 on their last start.

8/10 Had won over at least 2m4f.

8/10 Had finished in the top 2 in all hurdles so far.

8/10 Were rated within 11lbs of the RPR top rated.

8/10 Were bred for National Hunt (Point-to-Points or Bumpers)

Additionally

28 of the last 29 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out.

25 of the last 27 winners were from the top 6 in the betting.

19 of the last 20 winners were aged either 5 or 6.

12 of the last 14 winners were NH-bred.

No winner aged 4 since 1991. All 21 unplaced.

No winner aged 7+ since 1974.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.5 stars

Pont Alexandre 6/4f ***** Outclassed a decent Don Cossack on Irish debut. Classy looking favourite, but this is no cake walk.

Rule The World 6/1 ***** Form franked with his beating of yesterdays winner Champagne Fever. Looks a big price in that context.

Taquin Du Seuil 5/1 ***** 2^nd to My Tent Or Yours at Ascot. Looked very good last time and has a good chance if he gets up the hill.

Two Rockers 16/1 ***** Outsider who hits all the trends. Hasn't beaten much which is why he's that price.

A New One 5/1 **** Really a 5 star, but I'm being picky as it's such a hot renewal (Bumper runners don't have a good record in this - speed vs stamina of course). The New One can easily break this so don't be put off please.

Chatterbox 10/1 *** Lowere the colours of My Tent Or Yours. Henderson didn't want to run him this year, so read into that what you will. Tries 2m5f for the first time.

Sizing Gold 33/1 *** Isn't good enough, well beaten by Pont Alexandre.

Minsk 33/1 ** Hyped up horse of last season, who hasn't fulfilled promise.

Ubak 200/1 * Good luck if you are backing this horse.

Conclusions:

A strong looking renewal with 4 of the 9 runners trend perfect and The New One a smidgen behind. I'm taking on the Pont Alexandre (6/4fav) purely on price with RULE THE WORLD (6/1) with his beating of Supreme Novices winner Champagne Fever. The form hasn't been franked by My Tent Or yours defeat yesterday, so Taquin Du Seuil has that against him. Two Rockers (16/1) is an each-way price, but this is surely too hot for him. The New One (5/1) is in my TenToFollow, so I'm hoping for a big run and he has course experience.